Do the rumours come true?

Every tracked story is logged when it resolves: came true (matched an officially recorded transfer), fell through (denied, or a rival move won), or faded (went quiet — which is not a miss: the journalist may simply have been early).

Hit rate

78%

of 660 resolved stories

Tracked

660

confirmed + dead

check_circleCame true

518

cancelFell through

142

hourglass_emptyFaded

777

excluded from the rate

Window: since 2025-08-07. Tracking starts at the first logged story — backfilled history is excluded from these rates.

Journalist credibility

Journalist	Tracked	Hits	Misses	Faded	Hit rate
Gianluca Di Marzio@DiMarzio	179	150	29	182	84%(n=179)
Fabrizio Romano@FabrizioRomano	166	129	37	108	78%(n=166)
Florian Plettenberg@Plettigoal	107	94	13	49	88%(n=107)
Matteo Moretto@MatteMoretto	72	48	24	49	67%(n=72)
Sacha Tavolieri@sachatavolieri	62	51	11	67	82%(n=62)
David Ornstein@David_Ornsteinsmall sample	15	10	5	13	67%(n=15)

Methodology

hit rate = confirmed / (confirmed + dead). Faded rumours (never confirmed, never denied) are excluded from the denominator and reported separately — a quiet story may still happen. Backfilled history is excluded from the headline rate. Rates are hidden for small samples.

A journalist is credited only for moves they affirmed — reporting that a deal collapsed never counts against (or for) them on that move.
Rates are hidden below a minimum sample and tagged small sample until the track record is long enough to mean something.
One story counts once, however many times it resurfaces.

Tracks whether reported rumours later became official transfers — a descriptive record, not a prediction.