Football predictions for today's matches

Data-driven football predictions for every covered match today — 1X2 probabilities, the most likely result and the key factors behind each forecast, across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and 20+ competitions.

Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and scored against the final score, misses included — and when the market reads a match better than we do, the record says so.

How Oddsivio predictions work

no tips, no “sure wins” — probabilities with a public record
1

Built from evidence

Every forecast comes from Sirius, our evidence ledger — a running record of each team's results, form and matchup signals. No hunches, no last-minute edits.

2

Frozen before kickoff

Forecasts lock when the whistle blows. What you see during and after the match is exactly what we published before it — nothing is quietly rewritten.

3

Scored in public

At full time every forecast is scored against the final score — how much chance we gave the result that happened — and rolls into the season record above. When we're wrong, it stays on the page.

That’s the short version — read the full methodology: how Sirius and Janus make every forecast.

Football predictions — FAQ

›What are these football predictions based on?

Each match forecast is produced by Sirius, our evidence-ledger model. It weighs pre-kickoff evidence — recent results, home and away form, scoring and defensive signals, and head-to-head patterns — into 1X2 probabilities. The key factors behind every forecast are shown on the card, including the counter-evidence.

›How accurate are Oddsivio's predictions?

This season Sirius has scored 923 forecasts, misses included — we miss by 2.7 probability points on average. Every forecast is published on the full track record, next to the final score it was scored against. When the model doesn't have enough evidence, it publishes no forecast rather than guessing.

›Do Oddsivio's predictions beat the bookmakers?

Not yet — and we say so on the page. A fair comparison needs the market consensus saved before kickoff, and we have it for 322 of the 923 scored forecasts. On those, the market has been closer to what happened than us: it misses by 2.1 probability points on average, we miss by 4.7. That sentence is generated from the data and flips the day the record does. What we offer isn't a claimed edge — it's a forecast that grades itself in public, misses included.

›What does “average miss” mean?

Every forecast claims a chance — say a 60% home win. Grading collects the claims made at a similar chance and asks how often those results actually happened: say 60% and they should land about 60% of the time. The average miss is the distance between the chance we said and the rate it happened, in probability points, averaged over every claim we've published. Lower is better, and the chance bands on the Sirius track record show exactly where it is earned — and where it isn't.

›Do you publish betting tips?

No. Oddsivio publishes match analysis: probabilities, the evidence behind them, and a public record of every forecast, scored against what actually happened. We never publish “tips”, “sure wins” or accumulators. If you choose to bet, that's your decision — our job is to explain the game honestly.

›Why does a match have no prediction?

Because the model didn't have enough evidence to say anything honest. When a team's track record is too thin — newly promoted, a first competitive meeting, a young season — Sirius publishes no forecast rather than dressing up a guess, and every sit-out is kept on the record like the forecasts themselves. The match page still carries the lineups, live score and highlights either way.

›Which competitions get predictions?

Competitive matches across 20+ competitions — the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, the UEFA club competitions, MLS, the Brasileirão and more, plus second divisions and domestic cups. Friendlies never get forecasts, and inside a covered competition the model still sits out matches where the evidence is thin.

›When are predictions published for each match?

Forecasts are written from the final week of evidence and typically open in the hours before kickoff, then freeze when the match starts. During the match the frozen forecast stays visible next to the live score, and at full time it is scored against the result.

Every term these answers lean on — and the standard names statisticians use for them — is explained with live examples in Brier score, calibration and CLV: football prediction terms, explained. For how these forecasts stack up against the market's final word, see The closing line, explained — and how our forecasts measure up against it.

Today's football predictions, explained

Oddsivio publishes data-driven football predictions for every major competition — updated daily for today's and tomorrow's fixtures. Each match card shows the 1X2 probability spread, the most likely result with its chance, and the form and matchup signals that drive it, written in plain English rather than raw stats. Forecasts are frozen at kickoff, tracked live, and scored against the final score, so you can judge our record before you trust our read on today's matches.

Explore fixtures by competition below, find today's kickoffs on today's fixtures & live scores, follow the goals on goal highlights, or see how every past forecast fared on the Sirius track record.

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