scienceResearch preview · Frozen before kickoff

The Janus record — goals, cards & corners, graded

Janus reads each game against its league's norms and publishes a stated chance for nine kinds of call — goals over/under at three lines, both teams to score, each team to score, cards, corners and the first team to score — every one frozen before kickoff. This page grades those chances against what actually happened, misses included, plus the games it honestly sat out.

Updated daily as games finish · last graded game 11 Oct 2026

Across 17712 graded claims our stated chances land 2.3 points from what actually happened, on average.

Alongside them, 563 are frozen and await grading, 1328 stayed on the league norm, 9245 sat out and 75 were voided by cancelled games. A forecast that stayed on the norm carried no match-evidence claim of its own, so it is graded in the table but kept out of the bands.

Games covered
2861
14596 forecasts graded so far
Average miss
2.3 pts
distance between said and happened, each kind of call graded on its own
Too close to call
1946
coin-flip claims — flagged, and kept in the bands
No forecast
9245
not enough evidence — an honest sit-out, kept on the record

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Every lane below is the same test. Claims are sorted by the chance we gave the headline side — over for the goals, cards and corners lines, yes for the scoring calls, and all three outcomes for first team to score. The grey bar is the promise, the filled one is what football delivered.

Goals over/under 2.5

1801 claims · average miss 3 points
20–30%
3 claims
still collecting
we said
27.7%
it happened
6.1%79.2%
33.3%
30–40%
77 claims
we said
37.2%
it happened
39.7%61.5%
50.6%
40–50%
360 claims
we said
45.9%
it happened
45.1%55.4%
50.3%
50–60%
695 claims
we said
55.1%
it happened
50.5%57.9%
54.2%
60–70%
533 claims
we said
64.3%
it happened
63.6%71.6%
67.7%
70–80%
121 claims
we said
73.4%
it happened
68.6%83.5%
76.9%
80–90%
12 claims
still collecting
we said
82.5%
it happened
64.6%98.5%
91.7%

278 flagged too close to call · 42 awaiting grading · 60 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 10 voided

Goals over/under 1.5

1787 claims · average miss 1.6 points
60–70%
173 claims
we said
67.3%
it happened
61.5%75.2%
68.8%
70–80%
794 claims
we said
75.8%
it happened
71.7%77.7%
74.8%
80–90%
735 claims
we said
83.9%
it happened
78.8%84.4%
81.8%
90–100%
85 claims
we said
92.5%
it happened
81.1%94.3%
89.4%

41 awaiting grading · 59 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 11 voided

Goals over/under 3.5

1787 claims · average miss 3.3 points
0–10%
2 claims
still collecting
we said
7.5%
it happened
0%65.8%
0%
10–20%
117 claims
we said
17.1%
it happened
18.6%34.2%
25.6%
20–30%
615 claims
we said
25.7%
it happened
25%32.1%
28.5%
30–40%
678 claims
we said
34.9%
it happened
33.8%41%
37.3%
40–50%
328 claims
we said
43.8%
it happened
41.9%52.7%
47.3%
50–60%
45 claims
we said
53.1%
it happened
45.5%73%
60%
60–70%
2 claims
still collecting
we said
61.5%
it happened
34.2%100%
100%

64 flagged too close to call · 41 awaiting grading · 59 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 11 voided

Both teams to score

1789 claims · average miss 3 points
30–40%
22 claims
still collecting
we said
37.2%
it happened
16.4%52.7%
31.8%
40–50%
255 claims
we said
47.1%
it happened
46.8%59%
52.9%
50–60%
832 claims
we said
55.3%
it happened
50.6%57.3%
54%
60–70%
647 claims
we said
64.6%
it happened
56.8%64.3%
60.6%
70–80%
33 claims
we said
70.9%
it happened
59%87.2%
75.8%

280 flagged too close to call · 42 awaiting grading · 73 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 10 voided

Home team to score

1789 claims · average miss 1.9 points
40–50%
9 claims
still collecting
we said
47.6%
it happened
56.5%98%
88.9%
50–60%
59 claims
we said
56.5%
it happened
48.3%72.4%
61%
60–70%
280 claims
we said
65.5%
it happened
57.8%69%
63.6%
70–80%
528 claims
we said
75.4%
it happened
73.1%80.3%
76.9%
80–90%
593 claims
we said
84.2%
it happened
80.3%86.2%
83.5%
90–100%
320 claims
we said
93.6%
it happened
86.6%93.1%
90.3%

13 flagged too close to call · 42 awaiting grading · 73 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 10 voided

Away team to score

1789 claims · average miss 1.4 points
40–50%
20 claims
still collecting
we said
48.6%
it happened
14.5%51.9%
30%
50–60%
169 claims
we said
55.7%
it happened
48.1%62.9%
55.6%
60–70%
520 claims
we said
65.8%
it happened
61%69.2%
65.2%
70–80%
689 claims
we said
74.7%
it happened
70%76.6%
73.4%
80–90%
295 claims
we said
83.7%
it happened
78.4%86.9%
83.1%
90–100%
96 claims
we said
92.8%
it happened
75.8%90.3%
84.4%

54 flagged too close to call · 42 awaiting grading · 73 stayed on the league norm · 950 sat out · 10 voided

Cards over/under 4.5

1115 claims · average miss 3.7 points
0–10%
2 claims
still collecting
we said
6.4%
it happened
0%65.8%
0%
10–20%
36 claims
we said
16.3%
it happened
11.7%38.1%
22.2%
20–30%
111 claims
we said
26.2%
it happened
25.3%42.5%
33.3%
30–40%
275 claims
we said
35.6%
it happened
30.2%41.5%
35.6%
40–50%
317 claims
we said
45%
it happened
36.7%47.5%
42%
50–60%
250 claims
we said
54.3%
it happened
43.1%55.4%
49.2%
60–70%
99 claims
we said
63.8%
it happened
59%77%
68.7%
70–80%
25 claims
still collecting
we said
73.1%
it happened
40.7%76.6%
60%

166 flagged too close to call · 126 awaiting grading · 488 stayed on the league norm · 1204 sat out · 2 voided

Corners over/under 9.5

1181 claims · average miss 1.4 points
30–40%
15 claims
still collecting
we said
37.8%
it happened
15.2%58.3%
33.3%
40–50%
381 claims
we said
46.2%
it happened
37.7%47.5%
42.5%
50–60%
675 claims
we said
54.7%
it happened
50.9%58.4%
54.7%
60–70%
109 claims
we said
62.3%
it happened
52.1%70.1%
61.5%
70–80%
1 claims
still collecting
we said
70.9%
it happened
20.7%100%
100%

323 flagged too close to call · 102 awaiting grading · 443 stayed on the league norm · 1204 sat out · 2 voided

First team to score

4674 claims · average miss 2 points
0–10%
1176 claims
we said
5%
it happened
4.3%6.9%
5.4%
10–20%
370 claims
we said
14.2%
it happened
8%14.4%
10.8%
20–30%
293 claims
we said
25.9%
it happened
21.6%31.6%
26.3%
30–40%
685 claims
we said
35.6%
it happened
36.7%44%
40.3%
40–50%
964 claims
we said
45.1%
it happened
42.3%48.6%
45.4%
50–60%
770 claims
we said
54.2%
it happened
47.1%54.2%
50.6%
60–70%
334 claims
we said
64%
it happened
57.6%67.9%
62.9%
70–80%
71 claims
we said
73.6%
it happened
68%86.8%
78.9%
80–90%
11 claims
still collecting
we said
83%
it happened
35.4%84.8%
63.6%

768 flagged too close to call · 85 awaiting grading · 1137 sat out · 9 voided

On each “it happened” bar, the two thin marks bracket where the true rate could sit by chance alone — flip a fair coin 20 times and you can easily get 13 heads, not 10; small samples wobble. A gap between said and happened only starts to matter once “what we said” falls outside the marks, and more claims pull the marks closer together.

Does the match evidence beat the league norm?

Every forecast starts from its league's norm — how often games in that competition actually go over 2.5, see both teams score, and so on — then moves off it when the match evidence says to. The honest question is whether those moves help. Both reads were frozen before kickoff and are graded on exactly the same claims.

On the 17712 claims where the frozen league norm exists, both reads are graded side by side. The two land equally close — ours 2.3 points from what happened on average, the norm's 2.7.

ForecastOur missLeague normSo far
Goals over/under 2.53 pts3.3 ptslevel
Goals over/under 1.51.6 pts1.5 ptslevel
Goals over/under 3.53.3 pts3.6 ptslevel
Both teams to score3 pts1.7 ptsnorm ahead
Home team to score1.9 pts1.9 ptslevel
Away team to score1.4 pts2.6 ptsevidence ahead
Cards over/under 4.53.7 pts2.4 ptsnorm ahead
Corners over/under 9.51.4 pts3.2 ptsevidence ahead
First team to score2 pts3.4 ptsevidence ahead

Pooled error score: us 0.203 · league norm 0.210.

The forecast-error score — statisticians’ Brier score — counts how far every claim sat from what actually happened (lower is better). The league norm is where each forecast starts, never a separate engine. Every term on this page, explained in the glossary. How these forecasts are made — the full methodology.

Every forecast

“We gave it” is the chance the frozen forecast put on the side that then happened — 100 would be clairvoyance. Most of these are two-way calls, so honest grades cluster near the middle; the bands above are where the judgement lives.

Complete record since 14 July 2026, updated daily as games finish. Every number was written before kickoff and frozen; nothing is removed, nothing is regraded. The record so far spans 2861 games across 13 engine versions.

Open data. The figures on this page are Oddsivio's own record and are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Credit Oddsivio and, if you can, link to this page — a nofollow link or a plain-text credit is fine. The underlying match results and other third-party data are not included; see our terms.

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