Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow4 clips- 32′FC St. Pauli, goal:0–1
- 45′FC St. Pauli, goal:0–2assist
- 45+2′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 2
- 47′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 47′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Argument
- 49′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Holstein Kiel, goal:1–2assist
- 64′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 64′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 72′Holstein Kiel, yellow card:Foul
- 73′FC St. Pauli, yellow card:Foul
- 74′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 80′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 85′FC St. Pauli, substitution:off
- 86′Holstein Kiel, substitution:off
- 88′Holstein Kiel, goal:2–2assist
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
Match report
Holstein Kiel fight back from two down to draw with St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel came from two goals behind to draw 2-2 with FC St. Pauli in a 2. Bundesliga fixture at Holstein-Stadion, played as part of matchday two of the regular season.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
St. Pauli took control in the first half through Martijn Kaars, who converted in the 32nd minute, before Taichi Hara doubled the lead deep into first-half stoppage time, finishing an Arkadiusz Pyrka assist to make it 0-2 at the break.
Kiel responded after the interval as Phil Harres pulled a goal back in the 56th minute, set up by Alexander Bernhardsson. The hosts pushed for an equaliser and got it in the 88th minute when Jonas Therkelsen converted a Harres assist to level the score at 2-2, which is how the match finished.
Kiel dominated possession with 64 percent of the ball and had more shots overall, 19 to 13, though St. Pauli's expected goals figure of 2.56 edged the home side's 2.09, reflecting the visitors' clinical finishing in the first half.
Phil Harres scored Kiel's first goal and then set up Therkelsen's late equaliser, finishing the match with a rating of 8.3, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Kiel enjoyed a heavy majority of possession at 64 percent, yet it was St. Pauli who made the early breakthroughs before the hosts clawed their way back.
Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2 (half-time 0–2).
Holstein Kiel met FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Friday, 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC at Holstein-Stadion. Referee: Max Burda.
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Martijn Kaars — 0–1 · Watch Martijn Kaars's goal video (32')
- 45' Goal: Taichi Hara (assist: Arkadiusz Pyrka) — 0–2 · Watch Taichi Hara's goal video (45')
- 56' Goal: Phil Harres (assist: Alexander Bernhardsson) — 1–2 · Watch Phil Harres's goal video (56')
- 88' Goal: Jonas Therkelsen (assist: Phil Harres) — 2–2 · Watch Jonas Therkelsen's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
Holstein Kiel (4-1-4-1)
FC St. Pauli (3-4-1-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Holstein Kiel 30%, the draw 30%, FC St. Pauli 40%. It finished Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli.
FC St. Pauli's rating edge, but the draw is in play — FC St. Pauli are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus the early-season home fade on top give FC St. Pauli the lean. The draw at 30% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why FC St. Pauli at 40%?
FC St. Pauli sit 106 points higher on our strength rating — 1534 to 1639. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,042 such games. FC St. Pauli sit -0.37 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,340 such games where the class table expected 36.2%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Holstein Kiel's column. Across 10,546 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–34–35.
Why only 40%?
Holstein Kiel hold 8 more possession points (54 to 46 in recent games) across a 106-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,585 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why is the draw second, level with the Holstein Kiel win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,779. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC St. Pauli won all of the last 5 games between these sides. Head-to-head dominance hasn't carried forward beyond the rating: sides that won 4+ of the last 5 meetings won 55.6% of 9,190 next meetings vs 55.0% class-expected. Holstein Kiel's last five: W-W-L-L-D — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.8% of 2180 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 3988 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this 2. Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Martijn Kaars's goal against Holstein Kiel (32').
- Watch Taichi Hara's goal against Holstein Kiel (45').
- Watch Phil Harres's goal against FC St. Pauli (56').
- Watch Jonas Therkelsen's goal against FC St. Pauli (88').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli. Explore more on the Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli team pages or the 2. Bundesliga page.