scienceResearch preview · Frozen before kickoff

The Sirius record — every forecast, graded

Sirius reads each game from measured evidence and publishes three chances — home, draw, away — frozen before kickoff. This page grades all three against what actually happened, misses included, plus the games it honestly sat out.

Updated daily as games finish · last graded game 13 Sept 2026

Games graded
1466
4398 claims — every forecast grades all three chances
Typical chance on the result
36.1%
market consensus, same games: 36.7%
Average miss
2.9 pts
distance between said and happened, per claim
No forecast
287
not enough track record — an honest sit-out, kept on the record

When we say 60%, does it happen 60% of the time?

Every claim we’ve published, sorted by the chance we gave it. Matching pairs of bars are the whole point of a probability forecast — the grey bar is the promise, the filled one is what football delivered.

0–10%
168 claims
we said
7%
it happened
5.5%14.2%
8.9%
10–20%
622 claims
we said
16%
it happened
15.2%21.2%
18%
20–30%
1526 claims
we said
25.7%
it happened
26.6%31.1%
28.8%
30–40%
879 claims
we said
33.9%
it happened
28.5%34.7%
31.5%
40–50%
469 claims
we said
44.1%
it happened
36.4%45.2%
40.7%
50–60%
391 claims
we said
54.7%
it happened
44.9%54.8%
49.9%
60–70%
181 claims
we said
65.1%
it happened
57.4%71.2%
64.6%
70–80%
108 claims
we said
74.5%
it happened
60.2%77.3%
69.4%
80–90%
52 claims
we said
84.4%
it happened
70.3%90.6%
82.7%
90–100%
2 claims
still collecting
we said
90.2%
it happened
34.2%100%
100%

On each “it happened” bar, the two thin marks bracket where the true rate could sit by chance alone — flip a fair coin 20 times and you can easily get 13 heads, not 10; small samples wobble. A gap between said and happened only starts to matter once “what we said” falls outside the marks, and more claims pull the marks closer together.

Is this better than just guessing?

Four ways to forecast the same 682 graded games, scored with the forecast-error score (statisticians’ Brier): 0 is perfect, 2 is confidently wrong — lower is better.

← betterMarket consensus0.5987the market’s average, margin removedSirius0.6104our model — the market is never an inputLong-run averages0.654always forecast home 42% · draw 27% · away 30%Pure guessing0.6667an even 33% on every result

The colored stretch of the line is the ground we’ve covered — 83% of the distance from pure guessing to the market consensus. Scored only where the consensus was saved at least 30 minutes before kickoff. Across all 1466 graded games — market consensus saved or not — we score 0.6085; better, but those games skew easier, so the head-to-head stays on the shared 682. Every term on this page, explained in the glossary. How these forecasts are made — the full methodology.

For what it’s worth on most-likely calls alone: ours landed 317 of 682, the market’s 333. We grade the whole distribution, not the call — that single number hides everything this page is for.

Every forecast

Row tint — where the result ranked in our forecast:our top chanceour secondour third
1 / 71

“We gave it” is the chance the frozen forecast put on the result that then happened — 100 would be clairvoyance, and the thin mark on each bar is this record’s typical 36.1%. A 42% result landing is not a triumph and an 18% one is not a disaster; the bands above are where the honest judgement lives.

Across 4398 graded claims our number misses what happened by 2.9 points on average. The middle of our range is honest — between 20% and 70%, said and happened track within 5 points. The ends run wide: on calls of 70% or more we said 78% on average and 74% happened, and on long shots under 10% we said 7% while 8.9% happened.

A fair comparison needs the market consensus saved before kickoff, and we have it for 682 of the 1466 graded games. On those, the market has been closer to what happened than us — it misses by 2.6 points on average, we miss by 3.9. We are behind it, and this line will say so for exactly as long as that stays true.

Worth weighing before you lean on any of it: only 175 of the 1466 graded games come from the top European leagues Sirius is tuned for. The rest was earned elsewhere — mostly qualifying rounds for the UEFA Europa Conference League and UEFA Champions League, plus Major League Soccer. This caveat keeps count, and retires once the tuned-for leagues carry a real share of the record.

Complete record since 7 July 2026, updated daily as games finish. Every number was written before kickoff and frozen; nothing is removed, nothing is regraded. The record so far leans on 244 UEFA Europa Conference League, 152 Major League Soccer, 102 UEFA Champions League and more, across 13 engine versions.

Open data. The figures on this page are Oddsivio's own record and are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Credit Oddsivio and, if you can, link to this page — a nofollow link or a plain-text credit is fine. The underlying match results and other third-party data are not included; see our terms.

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