Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor — Süper Lig: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 18′Erzurumspor FK, yellow card:Foul
- 33′Erzurumspor FK, yellow card:Argument
- 45′Erzurumspor FK, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 57′Erzurumspor FK, substitution:off
- 64′Samsunspor, yellow card:Foul
- 65′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 66′Erzurumspor FK, substitution:off
- 66′Erzurumspor FK, substitution:off
- 77′Erzurumspor FK, yellow card:Foul
- 79′Samsunspor, substitution:off
- 81′Erzurumspor FK, substitution:off
- 86′Samsunspor, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
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Erzurumspor FK
Samsunspor
Match report
Cardoso strike gives Erzurumspor edge over Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK secured a 1-0 win over Samsunspor in matchday 6 of the Süper Lig, a Regular Season - 6 fixture. Miguel Cardoso struck in the 45th minute to put the home side ahead, and that goal proved decisive as the score stood at 1-0 at half-time and remained so until the final whistle.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Samsunspor held the greater share of possession, with 57% of the ball to Erzurumspor's 43%, and edged the corner count five to three. Yet Erzurumspor were the sharper side in the final third, matching their opponents with eight shots apiece while generating a higher expected goals figure of 0.77 against 0.40, underlining the value of Cardoso's finish.
The win lifted Erzurumspor to 14th in the table with seven points from six matches, while Samsunspor remained in 16th place on four points. The match, played under referee A. B. Taskinsoy, also saw three yellow cards shown to the home side and two to the visitors.
Miguel Cardoso scored the only goal of the match, netting in the 45th minute and finishing with a match rating of 7.6.
Erzurumspor outstripped Samsunspor in expected goals, 0.77 to 0.40, despite seeing less of the ball.
Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Erzurumspor FK met Samsunspor in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu. Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy.
Team pages: Erzurumspor FK · Samsunspor · Süper Lig
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Miguel Cardoso — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Erzurumspor FK (5-4-1)
Samsunspor (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Erzurumspor FK 31%, the draw 29%, Samsunspor 40%. It finished Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor.
Samsunspor's rating edge outweighs Erzurumspor FK's home ground — Samsunspor are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Samsunspor the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Samsunspor at 40%?
Samsunspor sit 176 points higher on our strength rating — 1473 to 1649. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,207 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Erzurumspor FK's column. Across 11,218 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–29–42.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Erzurumspor FK at 31%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,162. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Samsunspor have averaged 13 percentage points more possession than Erzurumspor FK in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Samsunspor scored +0.51 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,889 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Süper Lig fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor. Explore more on the Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor team pages or the Süper Lig page.