Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 10′Dynamo Kyiv, goal:1–0
- 14′Dynamo Kyiv, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 62′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 62′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 69′Dynamo Kyiv, substitution:off
- 69′Dynamo Kyiv, substitution:off
- 69′Dynamo Kyiv, substitution:off
- 76′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 76′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 79′Qarabag, substitution:off
- 80′Dynamo Kyiv, substitution:off
- 81′Dynamo Kyiv, yellow card:Holding
- 87′Dynamo Kyiv, substitution:off
- 88′Qarabag, red card:Roughing
- 90+4′Qarabag, yellow card:Holding
- 90+6′Dynamo Kyiv, yellow card:Holding
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
Dynamo Kyiv
4-2-3-1
Qarabag
4-2-3-1
Key Stats
Top Performers
Goal
Videos
Match report
Ponomarenko strike sends Dynamo Kyiv past Qarabag despite spell on back foot
Dynamo Kyiv beat Qarabag 1-0 in the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round at Motor Lublin Arena, with the only goal of the contest arriving early and proving enough to settle the tie in this leg.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Matvii Ponomarenko put the home side ahead after just ten minutes, and that strike stood as the difference at half-time and beyond. Qarabag pushed for a way back through the second half but could not find the breakthrough, and their task grew harder in the final moments when Čebrails Makreckis was sent off in the first minute of stoppage time.
Despite finishing with the lead, Dynamo Kyiv saw far less of the ball, with Qarabag dominating possession at 61 percent to 39. The away side also had a heavy edge in corners, forcing eleven to Dynamo Kyiv's three, yet Dynamo Kyiv matched them on the scoreboard where it mattered, converting their solitary first-half chance into the winning goal.
Ponomarenko was the difference-maker on the night, scoring the only goal of the match in the tenth minute to give Dynamo Kyiv the lead they would not relinquish.
Qarabag held a commanding 61 percent of possession but were unable to turn that control into a goal, undone instead by Dynamo Kyiv's early strike.
Dynamo Kyiv beat Qarabag 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Dynamo Kyiv met Qarabag in the UEFA Europa Conference League (3rd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 6 August 2026, 17:00 UTC at Motor Lublin Arena. Referee: Morten Krogh.
Team pages: Dynamo Kyiv · Qarabag · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 10' Goal: Matvii Ponomarenko — 1–0 · Watch Matvii Ponomarenko's goal video (10')
- 88' Red card: Čebrails Makreckis
Starting line-ups
Dynamo Kyiv (4-2-3-1)
Qarabag (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Dynamo Kyiv 33%, the draw 27%, Qarabag 40%. It finished Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Qarabag.
Qarabag's rating edge outweighs Dynamo Kyiv's home ground — Qarabag are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Qarabag's 40%. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Qarabag at 40%?
Qarabag sit 149 points higher on our strength rating — 1535 to 1684. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,012 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–28–39.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Dynamo Kyiv at 33%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,720.
What did we measure but not count?
Dynamo Kyiv scored +0.49 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,736 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.0% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Qarabag scored +0.51 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Qarabag. Explore more on the Dynamo Kyiv and Qarabag team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.