Minnesota United FC vs 11.10.26 00:302 – 2Full Time
Houston Dynamo — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Houston Dynamo salvage 2-2 draw at Minnesota United with stoppage-time equaliser
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo shared a 2-2 draw in Major League Soccer at Allianz Field on Matchday 28, with Duncan McGuire levelling in the second minute of stoppage time to deny the hosts a win that would have ended a five-match losing run.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Houston led at the interval through Lyle Foster, who scored in the 18th minute to make it 0-1. Minnesota restored parity three minutes after the restart, Kelvin Yeboah finishing from a Morris Duggan assist for 1-1.
The hosts then edged in front in the 78th minute, Marcus Caldeira scoring from a Cherrion Valerius delivery to make it 2-1. That lead held until the 90+2 mark, when McGuire converted Nicholas Markanich's assist to complete a four-goal match.
The point leaves Minnesota 25th in the table on 30 points, while Houston sit 10th on 45 after 28 games. Both sides had 15 shots and six on target, and the contest was as even as the scoreline suggests.
Guilherme was the top-rated performer in the match at 7.91 for Houston. Marcus Caldeira, who scored Minnesota's second goal, was next on 7.58.
Houston won five corners to Minnesota's two.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo drew 2–2 (half-time 0–1).
Minnesota United FC met Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 28). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Allianz Field. Referee: Marcos de Oliveira. Attendance: 19,351.
Team pages: Minnesota United FC · Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 18' Goal: Lyle Foster — 0–1 · Watch Lyle Foster's goal video (18')
- 48' Goal: Kelvin Yeboah (assist: Morris Duggan) — 1–1
- 78' Goal: Marcus Caldeira (assist: Cherrion Valerius) — 2–1
- 90+2' Goal: Duncan McGuire (assist: Nick Markanich) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
Minnesota United FC (3-4-3)
Houston Dynamo (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Minnesota United FC 40%, the draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 32%. It finished Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo.
Home ground outweighs Houston Dynamo's rating edge — Houston Dynamo are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Major League Soccer home advantage gives Minnesota United FC the lean. The draw at 28% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Minnesota United FC at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. Houston Dynamo sit 40 points higher on our strength rating — 1435 to 1475. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 10,361 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,207 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 40%?
Because Houston Dynamo are the stronger side on our strength rating. Houston Dynamo hold 6 more possession points (52 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,466 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Joaquín Pereyra, a star player, and Jefferson Díaz, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Out: Héctor Herrera, an important player. Doubtful: A. Resch, an important player. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo. Explore more on the Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo team pages or the Major League Soccer page.