Austin vs 11.10.26 00:301 – 4Full Time
Nashville SC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Nashville SC overwhelm Austin with four goals in 1-4 away win
Nashville SC won 4-1 at Austin in Major League Soccer on Matchday 28, a result that kept them top of the table on 63 points while leaving the hosts 24th on 31. The match at Q2 Stadium produced five goals, four of them for the visitors, with Ismail Elfath officiating.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Reed Baker-Whiting put Nashville ahead in the 30th minute, and that single goal was all that separated the sides at the break. Elias Saad doubled the lead in the 67th minute from a Cristian Espinoza assist, and for a while it looked as though the visitors would see the match out comfortably.
Austin briefly threatened a recovery in the 76th minute, when Brandon Vázquez converted a Facundo Torres assist to make it 1-2. The home side could not build on it. Shak Mohammed restored the two-goal cushion in the 88th minute, set up by Hany Mukhtar, and Mukhtar then turned scorer in the 90th-plus-first minute, applying the finish from Mohammed's pass to complete the 4-1 scoreline.
Cristian Espinoza laid on the second goal for Saad and earned the match's highest rating, 8.16. Hany Mukhtar was close behind on 8.08, contributing both an assist and a goal in the final three minutes.
Nashville had 24 shots to Austin's 11, underlining how much of the attacking play they controlled.
Nashville SC won 4–1 away against Austin (half-time 0–1).
Austin met Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 28). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC at Q2 Stadium. Referee: Ismail Elfath. Attendance: 20,738.
Team pages: Austin · Nashville SC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Reed Baker-Whiting — 0–1
- 67' Goal: Elias Saad (assist: Cristian Espinoza) — 0–2
- 76' Goal: Brandon Vázquez (assist: Facundo Torres) — 1–2
- 88' Goal: Shak Mohammed (assist: Hany Mukhtar) — 1–3
- 90+1' Goal: Hany Mukhtar (assist: Shak Mohammed) — 1–4
Starting line-ups
Austin (3-4-3)
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Austin 29%, the draw 24%, Nashville SC 47%. It finished Austin 1–4 Nashville SC.
Nashville SC's rating gap outweighs Austin's home ground — Nashville SC are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Nashville SC's 47%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Nashville SC at 47%?
Nashville SC sit 185 points higher on our strength rating — 1450 to 1636. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,670 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–22–50.
Why only 47%?
Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,207 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,118.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC scored +0.42 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,820 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Joseph Rosales, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Austin vs Nashville SC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Austin 1–4 Nashville SC. Explore more on the Austin and Nashville SC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.