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A move to Galatasaray from AC Milan for Rafael Leão is in the balance — reported as difficult or contested, but not off. The story was first reported on 26 July and is backed by 9 reports, including 6 from tier-1 sources, led by @sachatavolieri. A reported fee of €30m + €5m add-ons is on the table.
reporting reliability — not the probability of the deal happening
A weighted read of source quality, corroboration, deal stage and freshness — built from the reports below.
Signal strength reflects reporting reliability — not the probability of the deal happening.
🔴🟡 Galatasaray continue to push to sign Rafael Leão. Talks with AC Milan are ongoing, with a new offer expected to be submitted in the coming hours. ⏳ Leão has been convinced by Gala’s project. #mercato #ACM https://t.co/YCdGN2kZVh
AC Milan, Galatasaray'ın Rafael Leao için yaptığı 35 milyon euroluk teklifi reddetti. 50 milyon euro talebini yineledi.
Il @acmilan ha rifiutato un'offerta dal @GalatasaraySK per Leao attorno ai 30 milioni più 5 di bonus https://t.co/dOXl0SaSbR
🔴🟡 Galatasaray have already submitted an opening bid to AC Milan for Rafael Leão. Negotiations have been ongoing for the past 48 hours. More to follow. #ACM #Gala #mercato https://t.co/V9uXkn5kKI
🚨 Galatasaray ve AC Milan, Rafael Leao transferi için bonservis pazarlıklarına başladı.
Il Galatasaray alza il pressing per Rafael Leão. Le ultime su Youtube: https://t.co/jjFHiFa7gs https://t.co/6TWyO2VgI6
🚨🔴🟡 Talks between Galatasaray and Rafael Leão are progressing very well. 🤝 A personal agreement is now very close to being reached between all parties. ⏳ Galatasaray want to beat Fenerbahçe & finalize terms with the player first before opening formal negotiations with AC Milan. More to follow.
🚨 Rafael Leao’nun hangi takıma gideceğine AC Milan karar verecek. Daha önce de söylediğim gibi, Leao Süper Lig’e sıcak bakıyor. Bu transferde önemli olan oyuncuyla değil, AC Milan ile anlaşmak. Fenerbahçe, kulüp olarak; Galatasaray ise aracı menajer üzerinden AC Milan ile görüşmelerini sürdürüyor.
Il Galatasaray offre un prestito con diritto di riscatto per Leao. Il Milan vuole la cessione definitiva https://t.co/jxMydDDIgJ
Aggregated from public reports by football journalists. Signal strength reflects reporting reliability — not the probability of the deal happening, and not a betting market.
Reported fee is €9.9M below our model value.
A model-value read for context — not a betting market and not a probability the deal happens.
Reported by 9 — 6 tier-1, 3 tier-2.
Track records come from our resolved outcomes ledger; reporters with too few resolved calls show as “building”.
Clubs chasing Leão — leading bid pinned.
Other players Galatasaray are pursuing this window.
Burnley · CM
Eintracht Frankfurt · CAM