Match report
Ipswich vs Fulham — the facts
Ipswich beat Fulham 2–1 (half-time 0–0).
Ipswich met Fulham in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Portman Road Stadium. Referee: Lewis Smith. Attendance: 29,445.
Team pages: Ipswich · Fulham · Premier League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: Ryan Sessegnon — 0–1 · Watch Ryan Sessegnon's goal video (55')
- 88' Goal: Abdoul Ouattara — 1–1 · Watch Abdoul Ouattara's goal video (88')
- 90+1' Goal: Dara O'Shea (assist: Jack Clarke) — 2–1 · Watch Dara O'Shea's goal video (90+1')
Starting line-ups
Ipswich (4-2-3-1)
Fulham (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Ipswich 20%, the draw 25%, Fulham 55%. It finished Ipswich 2–1 Fulham.
Fulham's rating gap outweighs Ipswich's home ground — Fulham are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade plus their cold finishing due to recover on top give Fulham a clear lead. The draw at 25% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Fulham at 55%?
Fulham sit 165 points higher on our strength rating — 1563 to 1728. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,670 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Ipswich's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. Fulham sit -0.59 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,497 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–23–52.
Why only 55%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 55% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Ipswich at 20%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,118. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Fulham have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Ipswich in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Ipswich are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Ipswich vs Fulham final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Ryan Sessegnon's goal against Ipswich (55').
- Watch Abdoul Ouattara's goal against Fulham (88').
- Watch Dara O'Shea's goal against Fulham (90+1').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Ipswich 2–1 Fulham. Explore more on the Ipswich and Fulham team pages or the Premier League page.