KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Players to Watch
KVC Westerlo
CharleroiKVC WesterloCharleroiMatch preview
KVC Westerlo host fourth-placed Charleroi at Het Kuipje in Jupiler Pro League
KVC Westerlo welcome Charleroi to Het Kuipje on Matchday 11 of the Jupiler Pro League, with the visitors sitting fourth on 24 points from ten games. Westerlo are ninth on 14 points from the same number of matches, five places and ten points behind their opponents.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Issame Charaï's side arrive after a 4-1 defeat at Anderlecht on 31 October. Before that they had drawn 4-4 with SK Beveren and won 2-0 against Patro Eisden and 5-1 against Antwerp, scoring 14 goals across their last five league games.
Mario Kohnen's Charleroi were beaten 3-0 at Antwerp on 24 October but responded by beating RAAL La Louvière 5-2 on 1 November. Of their last five away games, they have won four and lost one, conceding only four goals in those five matches.
Across their last 5 meetings, KVC Westerlo won 3, Charleroi won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Charleroi 0–1 KVC Westerlo on 16 May 2026. Charleroi's latest win in this sample was Charleroi 2–0 KVC Westerlo on 8 November 2025.
Charleroi have won four of their last five, while Westerlo have won three, drawn one and lost one, the defeat coming last time out at Anderlecht.
Both sides have faced Antwerp recently: Westerlo beat them 5-1 at home on 11 October, while Charleroi lost 3-0 away on 24 October.
KVC Westerlo meet Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Het Kuipje. Referee: Wesli De Cremer.
Team pages: KVC Westerlo · Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League
Sirius · Why these numbers
KVC Westerlo 37% · Draw 26% · Charleroi 37%
Charleroi's stronger rating cancelled out by home advantage — Charleroi sit 66 points higher on our strength rating and usually see more of the ball, but KVC Westerlo's usual home advantage pulls things back, so we give each side 37%. The draw starts from the usual 29% for a gap this size and drops to 26%, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi level?
Home ground, against the rating. Charleroi sit 66 points higher on our strength rating — 1600 to 1534. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 37% each?
Because Charleroi are the stronger side on our strength rating. Charleroi hold 6 more possession points (57 to 51 in recent games) across a 66-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
KVC Westerlo scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. KVC Westerlo come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 11 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Jupiler Pro League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the KVC Westerlo and Charleroi team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.