KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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KVC WesterloCharleroiKVC WesterloCharleroiMatch preview
Westerlo host fourth-placed Charleroi at Het Kuipje on matchday 11
Westerlo welcome Charleroi to Het Kuipje in the Jupiler Pro League on matchday 11, with the visitors fourth in the table on 24 points and the hosts eighth on 14. Charleroi are four places and 10 points clear, so Mario Kohnen's side arrive as the higher-placed team.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Issame Charaï's Westerlo come off a 4-1 defeat at Anderlecht on 31 October, their last game. Before that they drew 4-4 at home with SK Beveren and beat Patro Eisden 2-0 and Antwerp 5-1 at home. Across their last five they have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring 14 goals and conceding nine.
Charleroi have won four of their last five, scoring 10 and conceding seven, and their latest outing was a 5-2 home win over RAAL La Louvière on 1 November. Their one defeat in that spell was a 3-0 loss at Antwerp on 24 October. Westerlo, who beat the same opponent 5-1, have not lost at home in their last five there.
Across their last 5 meetings, KVC Westerlo won 3, Charleroi won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Charleroi 0–1 KVC Westerlo on 16 May 2026. Charleroi's latest win in this sample was Charleroi 2–0 KVC Westerlo on 8 November 2025.
Charleroi have won four of their last five games, while Westerlo have won three, drawn one and lost one, the defeat coming at Anderlecht last time out.
Westerlo are unbeaten in their last five home games, with three wins and two draws, while Charleroi have won four of their last five away.
KVC Westerlo meet Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Het Kuipje. Referee: Wesli De Cremer.
Team pages: KVC Westerlo · Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League
Sirius · Why these numbers
KVC Westerlo 37% · Draw 26% · Charleroi 37%
Charleroi's stronger rating cancelled out by home advantage — Charleroi sit 66 points higher on our strength rating and usually see more of the ball, but KVC Westerlo's usual home advantage pulls things back, so we give each side 37%. The draw starts from the usual 29% for a gap this size and drops to 26%, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.8 goals.
Why are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi level?
Home ground, against the rating. Charleroi sit 66 points higher on our strength rating — 1600 to 1534. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 37% each?
Because Charleroi are the stronger side on our strength rating. Charleroi hold 6 more possession points (57 to 51 in recent games) across a 66-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
KVC Westerlo scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. KVC Westerlo come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 11 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Jupiler Pro League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the KVC Westerlo and Charleroi team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.