Match report
Qarabag vs Vestri — the facts
Qarabag beat Vestri 3–0 (half-time 2–0).
Qarabag met Vestri in the UEFA Europa League (1st Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 9 July 2026, 16:00 UTC at Tofiq Bəhramov. Referee: Roman Jitari.
Team pages: Qarabag · Vestri · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 30' Goal: Zakaria Sawo (assist: Oleksii Kashchuk) — 1–0 · Watch Zakaria Sawo's goal video (30')
- 45' Goal: Riçard Almeyda — 2–0
- 86' Goal: Renaldo Cephas (assist: Zakaria Sawo) — 3–0 · Watch Renaldo Cephas's goal video (86')
Starting line-ups
Qarabag (4-2-3-1)
- 99 Mateusz Kochalski
- 5 Bruno Langa
- 4 Bence Várkonyi
- 4 B. Varkonyi
- 55 Badavi Hüseynov
- 2 Matheus Silva
- 8 Marko Janković
- 35 Pedro Bicalho
- 10 Abdellah Zoubir
- 10 Riçard Almeyda
- 20 Kady
- 21 Oleksii Kashchuk
- 11 Zakaria Sawo
Vestri (4-4-1-1)
- 1 M. Steinarsson
- 15 G. Svavarsson
- 3 Edson Eduardo
- 12 Thibang Phete
- 22 E. Gardarsson
- 10 T. G. Hafthorsson
- 17 G. Hauksson
- 29 Konstantin Cheshmedzhiev
- 77 S. Fall
- 6 I. Balde
- 23 B. Hermannsson
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Qarabag 84%, the draw 9%, Vestri 7%. It finished Qarabag 3–0 Vestri.
Qarabag's rating gap decides it — Qarabag are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and UEFA Europa League home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Qarabag. The draw at 9% is trimmed by a league that produces few draws.
Why Qarabag at 84%?
Qarabag sit 419 points higher on our strength rating — 1677 to 1257. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,000 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (22.8% vs 24.9% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.5% of 4,358 games vs 44.9% across all 98,123 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 82–11–7.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 84% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 9% and Vestri at 7%.
Why is the draw only 9%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 11.4%. Not enough recent scoring data to set the goals dial — the draw stays at the class table's rate. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.1 points off.
What did we measure but not count?
Vestri have 0 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to a conservative baseline from the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Qarabag vs Vestri final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Qarabag 3–0 Vestri. Explore more on the Qarabag and Vestri team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Qarabag vs Vestri?
Qarabag beat Vestri 3–0 (half-time 2–0).
›Who scored in Qarabag vs Vestri?
Zakaria Sawo (30') for Qarabag; Riçard Almeyda (45') for Qarabag; Renaldo Cephas (86') for Qarabag.
›Where can I watch Qarabag vs Vestri highlights?
Goal highlights and video clips from Qarabag 3–0 Vestri are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
›What is the head-to-head record between Qarabag and Vestri?
Qarabag and Vestri have met 1 time — 1 win for Qarabag, 0 wins for Vestri and 0 draws.