AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow2 clips- 7′Beitar Jerusalem, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 54′Beitar Jerusalem, yellow card:Foul
- 57′Beitar Jerusalem, substitution:off
- 57′Beitar Jerusalem, substitution:off
- 57′Beitar Jerusalem, substitution:off
- 62′AEK Larnaca, substitution:off
- 63′AEK Larnaca, substitution:off
- 63′AEK Larnaca, substitution:off
- 65′Beitar Jerusalem, yellow card:Noam MucheFoul
- 68′AEK Larnaca, substitution:offI. Pankov
- 72′AEK Larnaca, red card:Professional foul last man
- 76′AEK Larnaca, substitution:Z. Adonioff
- 77′Beitar Jerusalem, goal:0–1
- 82′Beitar Jerusalem, substitution:offN. Muche
- 90+4′Beitar Jerusalem, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time0 – 1
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Match report
AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem — the facts
Beitar Jerusalem won 1–0 away against AEK Larnaca (half-time 0–0).
AEK Larnaca met Beitar Jerusalem in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 23 July 2026, 16:30 UTC at AEK Arena. Referee: Eric Wattellier.
Team pages: AEK Larnaca · Beitar Jerusalem · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 72' Red card: Mike van der Hoorn
- 77' Goal: Brayan Carabalí — 0–1 · Watch Brayan Carabalí's goal video (77')
Starting line-ups
AEK Larnaca (4-1-4-1)
Beitar Jerusalem (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave AEK Larnaca 56%, the draw 25%, Beitar Jerusalem 19%. It finished AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem.
AEK Larnaca's rating edge carries it — AEK Larnaca are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of AEK Larnaca's 56%. The draw at 25% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why AEK Larnaca at 56%?
AEK Larnaca sit 180 points higher on our strength rating — 1609 to 1430. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,558 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–25–17.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Beitar Jerusalem at 19%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,383. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Beitar Jerusalem have shed 61 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,518 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from AEK Larnaca 0–1 Beitar Jerusalem. Explore more on the AEK Larnaca and Beitar Jerusalem team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.