Southampton vs Stoke City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
- 8′Southampton, goal:1–0assist
- 19′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 26′Stoke City, goal:1–1assist
- 38′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 1
- 50′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 53′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 70′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 78′Southampton, substitution:off
- 78′Southampton, substitution:off
- 81′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 81′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 82′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 86′Stoke City, yellow card:Argument
- 89′Southampton, goal:2–1assist
- 90′Southampton, substitution:off
- 90′Southampton, substitution:off
- 90′Southampton, substitution:off
- 90+3′Stoke City, second yellow card:Foul
- 90+4′Southampton, penalty goal:3–1Penalty
- Full-time3 – 1
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Southampton
Stoke City
Match report
Southampton snatch late double to sink ten-man Stoke City
Southampton won 3-1 in a Championship round two meeting that swung dramatically in stoppage time, moving Tonda Eckert's side to nine points from two games while Stoke City remain without a win. Cyle Larin opened the scoring in the eighth minute, finishing off a Flynn Downes assist, before Ethan Galbraith levelled for Stoke in the 26th minute with Samuel Gallagher supplying the pass.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The score stayed level at 1-1 through half-time and deep into the second period until Divin Mubama restored Southampton's lead in the 89th minute, teed up by Finn Azaz. Stoke's night then collapsed further when Svante Ingelsson was sent off in the third minute of stoppage time, and Ryan Manning converted the resulting penalty a minute later to make it 3-1.
Southampton finished with less of the ball territorially dominant only in possession, holding 57 percent, yet it was Stoke who created more openly with 12 shots to the hosts' three. Mark Robins's side could not turn that pressure into a second goal, and the sending-off compounded a costly finish to the match.
Larin's eighth-minute finish set Southampton on their way and earned him a 7.3 rating, while Galbraith matched that mark after his equaliser kept Stoke level at the break.
Stoke managed 12 shots to Southampton's three, yet had only one more shot on target to show for that volume.
Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1 (half-time 1–1).
Southampton met Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at St. Mary's Stadium. Referee: Steve Martin.
Team pages: Southampton · Stoke City · Championship
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Cyle Larin (assist: Flynn Downes) — 1–0
- 26' Goal: Ethan Galbraith (assist: Sam Gallagher) — 1–1
- 89' Goal: Divin Mubama (assist: Finn Azaz) — 2–1
- 90+3' Red card: Svante Ingelsson
- 90+4' Goal (penalty): Ryan Manning — 3–1
Starting line-ups
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Stoke City (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Southampton 64%, the draw 25%, Stoke City 11%. It finished Southampton 3–1 Stoke City.
Southampton's rating gap decides it — Southampton are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Southampton's 64%. The draw at 25% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Southampton at 64%?
Southampton sit 288 points higher on our strength rating — 1681 to 1393. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,944 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 68–21–11.
Why only 64%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Southampton's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,367 games vs 44.9% across all 99,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,834. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Southampton vs Stoke City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Southampton 3–1 Stoke City. Explore more on the Southampton and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.