Cardiff vs Stoke City — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 23′Stoke City, goal:0–1assist
- 27′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 45+2′Cardiff, yellow card:Argument
- Half-time0 – 1
- 59′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 59′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 63′Cardiff, goal:1–1assist
- 69′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 69′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 81′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 82′Cardiff, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
Cardiff
Stoke City
Match report
Cardiff share spoils with Stoke City in Championship draw
Cardiff and Stoke City shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the Championship at Cardiff City Stadium, a result that did little to lift either side from the lower reaches of the table. Stoke went in front through Benjamin Johnson in the 22nd minute, assisted by Róbert Boženík, and held that lead into the interval.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Cardiff needed until the 63rd minute to find an equaliser, with Joel Colwill converting an assist from Christopher Willock to make it 1-1, and the score stayed level from there to the final whistle. Despite trailing for long spells, the home side dominated the ball and territory throughout the contest without managing to turn that control into a winning goal.
The draw left Cardiff on 4 points from six games in 20th place, while Stoke City moved onto 7 points in 15th. Neither manager, B. Barry-Murphy nor M. Robins, saw their side collect a first win of the sequence shown in recent form, with Cardiff winless in their last five and Stoke having lost two of their previous five outings.
Colwill was rated the top performer on the pitch, scoring Cardiff's equaliser to finish with an 8.05 rating, while teammate Willock also impressed after supplying the assist for that goal.
Cardiff enjoyed a commanding 71% of possession, yet had to settle for a share of the spoils against a Stoke side who managed just 29%.
Cardiff and Stoke City drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Cardiff met Stoke City in the Championship (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Tuesday, 8 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Cardiff City Stadium. Referee: Sam Allison.
Team pages: Cardiff · Stoke City · Championship
Key moments
- 23' Goal: Ben Johnson (assist: Róbert Boženík) — 0–1 · Watch Ben Johnson's goal video (23')
- 63' Goal: Joel Colwill (assist: Chris Willock) — 1–1 · Watch Joel Colwill's goal video (63')
Starting line-ups
Cardiff (4-2-3-1)
Stoke City (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Cardiff 44%, the draw 28%, Stoke City 28%. It finished Cardiff 1–1 Stoke City.
Level sides, Cardiff's control of the ball swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Cardiff's control of the ball gives Cardiff the lean. The draw at 28% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Cardiff in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1393 to 1423. Sides this close won 43.1% of 15,951 home games (draw 26.7%, visitors 30.2%). Cardiff hold 13 more possession points (60 to 47 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 47.9% of 5,206 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Cardiff's column. Across 11,026 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,415 games vs 44.9% across all 99,977 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw second, level with the Stoke City win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,144. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Cardiff are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Cardiff vs Stoke City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Cardiff 1–1 Stoke City. Explore more on the Cardiff and Stoke City team pages or the Championship page.