Match report
Lincoln hold off Derby fightback to win at Pride Park
Lincoln beat Derby 2-1 in the League Cup Round of 128 at Pride Park, moving into an early two-goal cushion before holding on despite being outplayed for long spells. The result continued a strong run of form for the visitors after a season of victories, while Derby's inconsistent recent record persisted despite the narrow margin of defeat.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Benjamin House put Lincoln ahead inside three minutes, converting a chance created by Ivan Varfolomeev. Dominic Jefferies doubled the lead on 23 minutes, finishing off a pass from Frederick Draper. Derby responded right on the stroke of half-time when Samuel Szmodics pulled a goal back in first-half stoppage time, making it 1-2 at the break, a scoreline that held to full time.
Derby dominated territory, enjoying 72 percent of possession and forcing seven shots to Lincoln's fourteen, yet could not find an equaliser despite the volume of Lincoln attempts. Both sides managed four shots on target apiece, while Lincoln also edged the corner count. Derby picked up one yellow card to Lincoln's two as the away side saw out the win.
Benjamin House scored the opening goal inside three minutes and earned the highest rating among the featured performers at 8.3.
Derby's 72 percent share of possession stood in contrast to their inability to convert territorial dominance into a result.
Lincoln won 2–1 away against Derby (half-time 1–2).
Derby met Lincoln in the League Cup (Round of 128). Kick-off was Saturday, 8 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at Pride Park. Referee: Josh Smith.
Team pages: Derby · Lincoln · League Cup
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Benjamin House (assist: Ivan Varfolomeev) — 0–1
- 23' Goal: Dominic Jefferies (assist: Frederick Draper) — 0–2
- 45+1' Goal: Samuel Szmodics — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Derby (4-2-3-1)
Lincoln (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Derby 24%, the draw 24%, Lincoln 52%. It finished Derby 1–2 Lincoln.
Lincoln's rating gap outweighs Derby's home ground — Lincoln are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Lincoln's 52%. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Lincoln at 52%?
Lincoln sit 224 points higher on our strength rating — 1489 to 1713. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 52.0% of 6,007 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 23–29–48.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Derby at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,733.
What did we measure but not count?
Derby average 7 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 224 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Lincoln's last five: W-D-W-W-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 29. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.8% of 2179 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 3986 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Derby vs Lincoln final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Derby and Lincoln team pages or the League Cup page.
Quick answers
›What was the final score of Derby vs Lincoln?
Lincoln won 2–1 away against Derby (half-time 1–2).
›Who scored in Derby vs Lincoln?
Benjamin House (3') for Lincoln; Dominic Jefferies (23') for Lincoln; Samuel Szmodics (45+1') for Derby.
›Where can I watch Derby vs Lincoln highlights?
This page carries the full match report, stats and lineups for Derby vs Lincoln; goal clips are added as soon as official highlights are available.