SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow4 clips- 29′SC Paderborn 07, goal:1–0
- 42′SC Paderborn 07, goal:2–0assist
- 45′1899 Hoffenheim, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time2 – 0
- 46′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 46′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 50′1899 Hoffenheim, goal:2–1assist
- 62′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 62′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 63′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 69′SC Paderborn 07, goal:3–1assist
- 73′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 73′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 75′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 80′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- 80′1899 Hoffenheim, substitution:off
- Full-time3 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim
Match report
Paderborn overturn possession deficit to sink Hoffenheim 3-1
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 at the Home Deluxe Arena in matchday four of the Bundesliga, despite seeing far less of the ball than their visitors. The home side made their limited possession count clinically in front of goal.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Santiago Castañeda opened the scoring in the 29th minute, and Stefano Marino doubled the lead on 42 minutes with an assist from Laurin Curda, sending Paderborn into the break 2-0 up. Adam Daghim pulled one back for Hoffenheim early in the second half, finishing an assist from Max Moerstedt in the 50th minute to make it 2-1.
Paderborn restored their two-goal cushion in the 69th minute when Steffen Tigges converted a chance created by Jonah Benedict Sticker, sealing the 3-1 scoreline. Hoffenheim dominated the ball and had far more shots overall, but Paderborn were the sharper side in front of goal, landing five shots on target to their opponents' two.
Castañeda struck the opening goal in the 29th minute and finished with a match-high rating of 7.97, setting the tone for Paderborn's win.
Despite having just 34% possession, Paderborn were far more efficient, putting five of their shots on target against Hoffenheim's two.
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 (half-time 2–0).
SC Paderborn 07 met 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 20 September 2026, 17:30 UTC at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee: Daniel Schlager.
Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 29' Goal: Santiago Castañeda — 1–0 · Watch Santiago Castañeda's goal video (29')
- 42' Goal: Stefano Marino (assist: Laurin Curda) — 2–0 · Watch Stefano Marino's goal video (42')
- 50' Goal: Adam Daghim (assist: Max Moerstedt) — 2–1 · Watch Adam Daghim's goal video (50')
- 69' Goal: Steffen Tigges (assist: Jonah Sticker) — 3–1 · Watch Steffen Tigges's goal video (69')
Starting line-ups
SC Paderborn 07 (3-5-2)
1899 Hoffenheim (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Paderborn 07 38%, the draw 28%, 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. It finished SC Paderborn 07 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Home ground outweighs 1899 Hoffenheim's rating edge — 1899 Hoffenheim are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground gives SC Paderborn 07 the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why SC Paderborn 07 at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. 1899 Hoffenheim sit 99 points higher on our strength rating — 1678 to 1777. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,669 such games.
Why only 38%?
Because 1899 Hoffenheim are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims SC Paderborn 07's column. Across 11,218 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,298. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SC Paderborn 07 come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 7 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). 1899 Hoffenheim won 2 of the last 4 meetings with SC Paderborn 07. The record is 2 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2 draws and 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07. These were 4 Bundesliga games played between 25 October 2014 and 23 May 2020. Latest meeting: 23 May 2020 — SC Paderborn 07 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim. In 5,648 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Santiago Castañeda's goal against 1899 Hoffenheim (29').
- Watch Stefano Marino's goal against 1899 Hoffenheim (42').
- Watch Adam Daghim's goal against SC Paderborn 07 (50').
- Watch Steffen Tigges's goal against 1899 Hoffenheim (69').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Paderborn 07 3–1 1899 Hoffenheim. Explore more on the SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim team pages or the Bundesliga page.