Union Berlin vs 10.10.26 13:301 – 0Full Time
SV Elversberg — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Burcu's late goal gives Union Berlin 1-0 win over SV Elversberg
Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1-0 at An der Alten Försterei in a Bundesliga Matchday 5 fixture, with Livan Burcu's 81st-minute goal settling a contest that stayed goalless through the first half and most of the second.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The home side had lost their previous three league matches, and the result lifted them to four points from five games and 16th place. Elversberg, who arrived unbeaten in their last four, remain eighth on seven points after a first defeat in that run.
The statistics showed how one-sided the chances were. Union had 19 shots to Elversberg's 7, and seven of them tested the goalkeeper against two from the visitors. Elversberg held more of the ball, with 57 per cent possession, but struggled to turn it into anything dangerous.
Burcu's finish arrived after sustained home pressure, and Union saw out the remaining minutes without incident. Referee Tobias Reichel showed two yellow cards to the hosts and one to the visitors, with no red cards in the match.
Zeno Van Den Bosch earned the highest rating among the performers listed, 7.62, in a match Union won without conceding. Burcu, rated 7.33, scored the only goal of the game.
Union Berlin had 19 shots to Elversberg's 7, a margin that reflected how much of the match's attacking threat came from the hosts despite their lower possession.
Union Berlin beat SV Elversberg 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Union Berlin met SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at An der Alten Försterei. Referee: Tobias Reichel. Attendance: 22,012.
Team pages: Union Berlin · SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 81' Goal: Livan Burcu — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Union Berlin (4-1-4-1)
SV Elversberg (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Union Berlin 49%, the draw 24%, SV Elversberg 27%. It finished Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg.
Level sides, SV Elversberg's hot finishing due to cool swings it Union Berlin's way — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and SV Elversberg's hot finishing due to cool gives Union Berlin the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Union Berlin in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1556 to 1553. Sides this close won 45.8% of 13,702 home games (draw 27.7%, visitors 26.6%). SV Elversberg scored +0.88 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.2% of 1,447 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 49%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Union Berlin's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 4.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SV Elversberg have gained 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,169 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Union Berlin have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg. Explore more on the Union Berlin and SV Elversberg team pages or the Bundesliga page.