SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsBundesligaYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow5 clips- 4′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 7′SV Elversberg, goal:1–0
- 26′SV Elversberg, goal:2–0assist
- 33′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 45+1′SV Elversberg, goal:3–0
- Half-time3 – 0
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 63′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 65′FSV Mainz 05, goal disallowed:Goal Disallowed
- 68′SV Elversberg, substitution:off
- 75′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 77′SV Elversberg, substitution:off
- 77′SV Elversberg, substitution:off
- 85′FSV Mainz 05, yellow card:
- 87′FSV Mainz 05, substitution:off
- 88′SV Elversberg, substitution:off
- 88′SV Elversberg, substitution:off
- 90′SV Elversberg, goal:4–0assist
- 90+2′FSV Mainz 05, goal:4–1
- 90+5′FSV Mainz 05, second yellow card:
- Full-time4 – 1
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SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05
Match report
SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4-1 to ease Bundesliga worries
SV Elversberg won 4-1 against FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga Matchday 8 fixture at the Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, moving from eighth to fifth in the table. Felix Keidel opened the scoring in the seventh minute, and the hosts never looked back.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Francis Onyeka doubled the lead in the 26th minute, finishing from a David Mokwa assist, and Maurice Krattenmacher made it 3-0 in first-half stoppage time, in the 45+1 minute. Mainz went in at the interval with no way back into a game that had already slipped away from them.
The second half passed with the scoreline unchanged until the 90th minute, when Cole Campbell struck a fourth from a Nicholas Mickelson assist. Benedict Hollerbach pulled one back for Mainz in the 90+2 minute, but Stefan Posch was sent off three minutes later, leaving the visitors with ten men. Mainz have now lost 3 games in a row.
The result lifted Elversberg to 13 points from eight games, three clear of Mainz, who stayed on 10 points. Both sides are in action again on Saturday 7 November: Elversberg travel to Borussia Dortmund, while Mainz host Bayern München, both in the Bundesliga.
Felix Keidel gave Elversberg the early lead with a seventh-minute goal and was the highest-rated player on the pitch, with a rating of 7.88. Krattenmacher, whose stoppage-time strike made it 3-0, followed closely on 7.73.
Mainz won 11 corners to Elversberg's 5 but trailed for nearly the whole game, and finished with just two shots on target to the hosts' six.
SV Elversberg beat FSV Mainz 05 4–1 (half-time 3–0).
SV Elversberg met FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Friday, 30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Referee: Sascha Stegemann. Attendance: 9,307.
Team pages: SV Elversberg · FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Felix Keidel — 1–0 · Watch Felix Keidel's goal video (7')
- 26' Goal: Francis Onyeka (assist: David Mokwa) — 2–0 · Watch Francis Onyeka's goal video (26')
- 45+1' Goal: Maurice Krattenmacher — 3–0 · Watch Maurice Krattenmacher's goal video (45+1')
- 90' Goal: Cole Campbell (assist: Nicholas Mickelson) — 4–0 · Watch Cole Campbell's goal video (90')
- 90+2' Goal: Benedict Hollerbach — 4–1 · Watch Benedict Hollerbach's goal video (90+2')
Starting line-ups
SV Elversberg (4-2-3-1)
FSV Mainz 05 (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SV Elversberg 34%, the draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 41%. It finished SV Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05.
Mainz's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — FSV Mainz 05 sit 123 points higher on our strength rating, 1643 to 1521, which is enough to put them narrowly in front at 41% even after SV Elversberg's usual home advantage. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why FSV Mainz 05 at 41%?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 123 points higher on our strength rating — 1643 to 1521. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,838 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–26–46.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and SV Elversberg at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,498. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
SV Elversberg are newly promoted — game 8 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. Out: Tom Zimmerschied, an important player. Doubtful: Jan Gyamerah, an important player, and Noah Darvich, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Felix Keidel's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (7').
- Watch Francis Onyeka's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (26').
- Watch Maurice Krattenmacher's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (45+1').
- Watch Cole Campbell's goal against FSV Mainz 05 (90').
- Watch Benedict Hollerbach's goal against SV Elversberg (90+2').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SV Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05. Explore more on the SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05 team pages or the Bundesliga page.