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play_arrow5 clips- 12′Guimaraes, yellow card:Foul
- 17′Guimaraes, yellow card:Foul
- 22′Guimaraes, yellow card:Argument
- 36′Maritimo, yellow card:Argument
- 36′Maritimo, yellow card:Foul
- 38′Guimaraes, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 48′Guimaraes, own goal:2–0Own goal
- 60′Guimaraes, goal:3–0
- 62′Maritimo, yellow card:Foul
- 63′Guimaraes, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Guimaraes, substitution:off
- 66′Guimaraes, substitution:off
- 69′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 69′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 76′Guimaraes, goal:4–0assist
- 78′Guimaraes, substitution:off
- 78′Guimaraes, substitution:off
- 78′Guimaraes, substitution:off
- 80′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 86′Maritimo, substitution:off
- 90′Guimaraes, goal:5–0assist
- Full-time5 – 0
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Guimaraes
Maritimo
Match report
Guimaraes thrash Maritimo 5-0 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 5-0 in the Primeira Liga on Matchday 9, a result that lifted them from 15th to 11th and dropped the visitors from 11th to 13th. Both sides finished the night on eight points, with the home side ahead on the table by two places.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 38th minute, when Arnel Jakupovic put the hosts in front. Three minutes after the restart, Paulo Henrique turned the ball into his own net in the 48th minute to make it 2-0, and Oumar Camara added a third in the 60th minute.
Jakupovic claimed his second of the night in the 76th minute, set up by Samu, and Yeimar Mosquera completed the rout in the 90th minute from an Alan assist. Maritimo, who managed only two shots on target, never threatened a response.
Guimaraes next travel to GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Monday 2 November, while Maritimo face Sporting CP away in the Taça da Liga on Tuesday 27 October.
Arnel Jakupovic scored twice, the second from Samu's assist, and was rated 8.6, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Guimaraes put eight of their 16 shots on target, while Maritimo managed two from their 10 attempts.
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 5–0 (half-time 1–0).
Guimaraes met Maritimo in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Friday, 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Referee: Diogo Rosa.
Team pages: Guimaraes · Maritimo · Primeira Liga
Key moments
- 38' Goal: Arnel Jakupovic — 1–0 · Watch Arnel Jakupovic's goal video (38')
- 48' Goal (own goal): Paulo Henrique — 2–0 · Watch Paulo Henrique's goal video (48')
- 60' Goal: Oumar Camara — 3–0 · Watch Oumar Camara's goal video (60')
- 76' Goal: Arnel Jakupovic (assist: Samu) — 4–0 · Watch Arnel Jakupovic's goal video (76')
- 90' Goal: Yeimar Mosquera (assist: Alan) — 5–0 · Watch Yeimar Mosquera's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Guimaraes (4-2-3-1)
- 98 Lucas Furtado
- 13 João Mendes
- 5 Ahmed Sidibé
- 21 Toni Borevković
- 23 Tony Strata
- 16 Beni
- 8 Gonçalo Nogueira
- 11 Gustavo
- 20 Samu (c)
- 7 Oumar Camara
- 9 Arnel Jakupovic
Maritimo (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Guimaraes 59%, the draw 25%, Maritimo 16%. It finished Guimaraes 5–0 Maritimo.
Guimaraes lead on strength, with finishing to come — We give Guimaraes 59% mainly because they sit 124 points higher on our strength rating, and their recent finishing adds a little more, as cold streaks like theirs have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged down by that finishing streak and up by typical scoring in both sides' recent games.
Why Guimaraes at 59%?
Guimaraes sit 124 points higher on our strength rating — 1498 to 1374. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,323 such games. Guimaraes sit -1.01 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 2,927 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–24–22.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Maritimo at 16%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,291. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Guimaraes have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Maritimo in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Maritimo are newly promoted — game 9 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Guimaraes vs Maritimo final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Primeira Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Arnel Jakupovic's goal against Maritimo (38').
- Watch Paulo Henrique's own goal video (48').
- Watch Oumar Camara's goal against Maritimo (60').
- Watch Arnel Jakupovic's goal against Maritimo (76').
- Watch Yeimar Mosquera's goal against Maritimo (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Guimaraes 5–0 Maritimo. Explore more on the Guimaraes and Maritimo team pages or the Primeira Liga page.