The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow1 clip- 16′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
- 20′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 41′Flora Tallinn, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 65′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
- 66′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 66′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 66′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 80′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 80′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 81′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 81′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 86′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
- 87′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 90′The New Saints, goal:1–0assist
- Full-time1 – 0
- 92′Flora Tallinn, yellow card:Foul
- 97′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
- 102′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time · E.T.1 – 0
- 106′The New Saints, substitution:off
- 106′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 110′Flora Tallinn, substitution:off
- 120+1′The New Saints, yellow card:Foul
The New Saints2
Flora Tallinn4Lineups
Tap a player for match statsTop Performers
Goal
Assist
Videos
Match report
The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn — the facts
The New Saints beat Flora Tallinn 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Flora Tallinn won the penalty shootout 4–2.
The New Saints met Flora Tallinn in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC at Park Hall. Referee: Vitalijs Spasjonnikovs.
Team pages: The New Saints · Flora Tallinn · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 90' Goal: Ben Wilson (assist: Jack Bodenham) — 1–0 · Watch Ben Wilson's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
The New Saints (4-2-3-1)
Flora Tallinn (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave The New Saints 56%, the draw 26%, Flora Tallinn 18%. It finished The New Saints 1–0 Flora Tallinn.
The New Saints' rating edge carries it — The New Saints are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of The New Saints' 56%. The draw at 26% is up from the usual 24.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why The New Saints at 56%?
The New Saints sit 152 points higher on our strength rating — 1330 to 1178. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.2% of 12,618 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 50–24–26.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Flora Tallinn at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,463. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
The New Saints have shed 89 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,563 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Flora Tallinn's last five: L-D-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.8% of 2177 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 3983 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from The New Saints 1–0 Flora Tallinn. Explore more on the The New Saints and Flora Tallinn team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.