Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia — UEFA Champions League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow3 clips- 24′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 26′Omonia Nicosia, red card:Violent conduct
- 36′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 36′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 37′Kairat Almaty, goal:1–0assist
- 41′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 65′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 65′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 67′Kairat Almaty, yellow card:Foul
- 68′Omonia Nicosia, yellow card:Foul
- 72′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 72′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 72′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- 76′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 76′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
- 80′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
- 96′Omonia Nicosia, yellow card:Foul
- 102′Kairat Almaty, substitution:off
- Half-time · E.T.1 – 0
- 111′Omonia Nicosia, second yellow card:Foul
- 114′Omonia Nicosia, substitution:off
Kairat Almaty6
Omonia Nicosia5Lineups
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Match report
Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia — the facts
Kairat Almaty beat Omonia Nicosia 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Kairat Almaty won the penalty shootout 6–5.
Kairat Almaty met Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Champions League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Wednesday, 29 July 2026, 15:00 UTC at Central Stadium. Referee: Rohit Saggi.
Team pages: Kairat Almaty · Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Champions League
Key moments
- 26' Red card: Andronikos Kakoullis
- 37' Goal: Edmilson (assist: Luís Mata) — 1–0 · Watch Edmilson's goal video (37')
- 111' Red card: Senou Coulibaly
Starting line-ups
Kairat Almaty (4-2-3-1)
Omonia Nicosia (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Kairat Almaty 30%, the draw 34%, Omonia Nicosia 36%. It finished Kairat Almaty 1–0 Omonia Nicosia.
Omonia Nicosia's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus their control of the ball on top give Omonia Nicosia the lean. The draw at 34% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Omonia Nicosia at 36%?
Omonia Nicosia sit 90 points higher on our strength rating — 1532 to 1621. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,476 such games. Omonia Nicosia sit -0.42 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.6% of 1,287 games, vs 28.8% for visitors finishing normally. Omonia Nicosia hold 7 more possession points (47 to 40 in recent games) across a 90-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,547 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–30–33.
Why only 36%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 36% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 34% and Kairat Almaty at 30%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Kairat Almaty win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.3 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,030. The goals environment adds 3.8 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Last 3 between them: Kairat Almaty 0 wins, 2 draws, Omonia Nicosia 1 win. Most recently Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Kairat Almaty, 6 days ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5557 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Champions League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Kairat Almaty 1–0 Omonia Nicosia. Explore more on the Kairat Almaty and Omonia Nicosia team pages or the UEFA Champions League page.