Match Events
play_arrow2 clips- 5′Zira, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 57′Paide, yellow card:
- 62′Paide, substitution:off
- 62′Paide, substitution:off
- 71′Paide, goal:1–1assist
- 72′Paide, substitution:off
- 72′Zira, substitution:off
- 72′Zira, substitution:off
- 75′Paide, substitution:off
- 80′Zira, substitution:off
- 80′Zira, substitution:off
- 83′Zira, yellow card:
- 89′Zira, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
Starting lineups
Formation or player positions unavailable or inconsistent.
Zira
Formation unavailable
Paide
Formation unavailable
Top Performers
Goals
Assist
Videos
Match report
Zira vs Paide — the facts
Zira and Paide drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Zira met Paide in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC at Kapital Bank Arena. Referee: Patrik Kolarić.
Team pages: Zira · Paide · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 5' Goal: Eren Aydın — 1–0 · Watch Eren Aydın's goal video (5')
- 71' Goal: Henri Anier (assist: Henrik Ojamaa) — 1–1 · Watch Henri Anier's goal video (71')
Starting line-ups
Zira
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Zira 71%, the draw 17%, Paide 12%. It finished Zira 1–1 Paide.
Zira's rating gap decides it — Zira are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Zira's 71%. The draw at 17% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Zira at 71%?
Zira sit 311 points higher on our strength rating — 1452 to 1141. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,033 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 67–19–14.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 71% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 17% and Paide at 12%.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,814. The goals environment takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Paide have gained 86 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.5% of 12,089 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Zira (19 fully-tracked matches with us) and Paide (24) carry strength ratings anchored to the long-run European club ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Zira vs Paide final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Zira 1–1 Paide. Explore more on the Zira and Paide team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.