Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow4 clips- 14′Shelbourne, goal:0–1
- 31′Kalju Nomme, red card:Foul
- 42′Shelbourne, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Kalju Nomme, substitution:off
- 46′Shelbourne, substitution:off
- 46′Shelbourne, substitution:off
- 46′Shelbourne, substitution:off
- 49′Kalju Nomme, goal:1–1assist
- 62′Kalju Nomme, substitution:off
- 62′Kalju Nomme, substitution:off
- 63′Shelbourne, substitution:off
- 67′Kalju Nomme, substitution:off
- 73′Shelbourne, substitution:off
- 74′Kalju Nomme, substitution:off
- 75′Kalju Nomme, goal:2–1assist
- 77′Shelbourne, yellow card:Foul
- 78′Kalju Nomme, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Shelbourne, yellow card:Simulation
- 90+2′Kalju Nomme, yellow card:Argument
- 90+2′Kalju Nomme, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time2 – 1
Lineups
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Match report
Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne — the facts
Kalju Nomme beat Shelbourne 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Kalju Nomme met Shelbourne in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC at Parnu Rannastaadion. Referee: Johan Hendrik Ellefsen.
Team pages: Kalju Nomme · Shelbourne · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 14' Goal: Daniel Kelly — 0–1 · Watch Daniel Kelly's goal video (14')
- 31' Red card: Oleksandr Musolitin
- 49' Goal: Enrique Lotar (assist: Henri Perk) — 1–1 · Watch Enrique Lotar's goal video (49')
- 75' Goal: Ibrahim Jabir (assist: Nikita Ivanov) — 2–1 · Watch Ibrahim Jabir's goal video (75')
Starting line-ups
Kalju Nomme (4-4-2)
Shelbourne (4-3-3)
- 19 Edward Beach
- 18 James Norris
- 29 Paddy Barrett
- 4 Kameron Ledwidge
- 25 Milan Mbeng
- 14 Ali Coote
- 23 K. McInroy
- 17 Daniel Kelly
- 22 Sean Moore
- 20 R. Freitas
- 27 Evan Caffrey
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Kalju Nomme 29%, the draw 29%, Shelbourne 42%. It finished Kalju Nomme 2–1 Shelbourne.
Shelbourne's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Shelbourne are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives Shelbourne the lean. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 27.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Shelbourne at 42%?
Shelbourne sit 143 points higher on our strength rating — 1144 to 1287. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 12,995 such games. Shelbourne sit -0.59 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,316 such games where the class table expected 36.1%. The 300 most similar past games finished 36–27–37.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Kalju Nomme at 29%.
Why is the draw second, level with the Kalju Nomme win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,463. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Shelbourne have 19 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Daniel Kelly's goal against Kalju Nomme (14').
- Watch Enrique Lotar's goal against Shelbourne (49').
- Watch Ibrahim Jabir's goal against Shelbourne (75').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Kalju Nomme 2–1 Shelbourne. Explore more on the Kalju Nomme and Shelbourne team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.