Stoke City vs 25.08.26 18:451 – 1(4-5 pen)After Pen
Hull City — League Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Stoke City vs Hull City — the facts
Stoke City and Hull City drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Hull City won the penalty shootout 5–4.
Stoke City met Hull City in the League Cup (Round of 64). Kick-off was Tuesday, 25 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Bet365 Stadium. Referee: John Busby.
Team pages: Stoke City · Hull City · League Cup
Key moments
- 39' Goal: Róbert Boženík (assist: Sorba Thomas) — 1–0 · Watch Róbert Boženík's goal video (39')
- 45' Goal: Kieran Dowell (assist: Liam Millar) — 1–1 · Watch Kieran Dowell's goal video (45')
Starting line-ups
Stoke City (4-2-3-1)
Hull City (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Stoke City 32%, the draw 29%, Hull City 39%. It finished Stoke City 1–1 Hull City.
Hull City's rating edge outweighs Stoke City's home ground — Hull City are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Hull City's 39%. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 27.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Hull City at 39%?
Hull City sit 195 points higher on our strength rating — 1389 to 1584. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,091 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–27–44.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Stoke City at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,656. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Stoke City average 10 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 195 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Hull City have gained 105 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,225 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Stoke City vs Hull City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Róbert Boženík's goal against Hull City (39').
- Watch Kieran Dowell's goal against Stoke City (45').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Stoke City 1–1 Hull City. Explore more on the Stoke City and Hull City team pages or the League Cup page.