Nottingham Forest vs 25.08.26 19:000 – 2Full Time
Leeds — League Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Leeds see off Nottingham Forest to advance in League Cup
Leeds beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at the City Ground in a League Cup Round of 64 tie, moving through with goals in each half after a goalless first period. Daniel Farke's side found their rhythm after the break, taking control at a venue where Oliver Glasner's Forest had endured a mixed run of results.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The visitors broke the deadlock five minutes into the second half when Daniel James converted an assist from Sean Longstaff to make it 0-1. James Justin doubled the advantage in the 75th minute, finishing off a move to put the tie beyond Forest's reach and confirm Leeds' passage to the next round.
The contest was tightly fought for possession, with both sides sharing the ball evenly at 50 per cent apiece, though Leeds were the more clinical in front of goal, registering 13 shots and five on target compared to Forest's nine attempts and three on target. Forest also picked up more bookings and committed more fouls as the match wore on.
James Justin capped an impressive display with the decisive second goal and a rating of 9.3, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Leeds outshot Forest 13 to 9, with five efforts on target against three, underlining their greater efficiency in attack.
Leeds won 2–0 away against Nottingham Forest (half-time 0–0).
Nottingham Forest met Leeds in the League Cup (Round of 64). Kick-off was Tuesday, 25 August 2026, 19:00 UTC at City Ground. Referee: Andrew Kitchen.
Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Leeds · League Cup
Key moments
- 50' Goal: Daniel James (assist: Sean Longstaff) — 0–1 · Watch Daniel James's goal video (50')
- 75' Goal: James Justin — 0–2 · Watch James Justin's goal video (75')
Starting line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-3)
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nottingham Forest 46%, the draw 25%, Leeds 29%. It finished Nottingham Forest 0–2 Leeds.
Level sides, only home ground separates them — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Nottingham Forest's 46% is home ground and little else. The draw at 25% is down from the usual 26.5% between sides this level, as small adjustments add up.
Why Nottingham Forest in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1890 to 1864. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,498 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%).
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Nottingham Forest scored +0.39 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,469 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,869.
What did we measure but not count?
Leeds have gained 69 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,225 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Leeds's last five: W-D-W-L-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2192 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4005 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nottingham Forest vs Leeds final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this League Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Daniel James's goal against Nottingham Forest (50').
- Watch James Justin's goal against Nottingham Forest (75').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nottingham Forest 0–2 Leeds. Explore more on the Nottingham Forest and Leeds team pages or the League Cup page.