Lincoln Red Imps FC vs 20.08.26 16:000 – 2Full Time
Larne — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Larne see off ten-man Lincoln Red Imps in Europa Conference League playoff
Larne beat Lincoln Red Imps FC 2-0 in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Victoria Stadium, with both goals arriving late to settle a contest shaped by a first-half sending-off. The match was scoreless at half-time despite the numerical disadvantage suffered by the hosts.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Lincoln Red Imps FC were reduced to ten men in the 29th minute when Yussef Flalhi Idrissi was shown a red card, leaving the home side to defend for over an hour with a player short. Larne eventually broke through in the 84th minute as Paul O'Neill converted an assist from James Simpson to make it 1-0.
The visitors added a second in stoppage time, with K. O'Hara finishing off a move set up by O'Neill in the 90th+3 minute to complete a 2-0 win. Larne's dominance was reflected across the match statistics, as they held 55 per cent of possession and had considerably more efforts on target than their hosts.
Paul O'Neill had a hand in both Larne goals, scoring the opener in the 84th minute before setting up K. O'Hara's stoppage-time finish.
Larne managed seven shots on target to Lincoln Red Imps FC's three, underlining their control in front of goal despite facing ten men for over an hour.
Larne won 2–0 away against Lincoln Red Imps FC (half-time 0–0).
Lincoln Red Imps FC met Larne in the UEFA Europa Conference League (Playoff round). Kick-off was Thursday, 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC at Victoria Stadium. Referee: Kristo Tohver.
Team pages: Lincoln Red Imps FC · Larne · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 27' Red card: Yussef Flalhi Idrissi
- 84' Goal: Paul O'Neill (assist: James Simpson) — 0–1 · Watch Paul O'Neill's goal video (84')
- 90' Goal: K. O'Hara (assist: Paul O'Neill) — 0–2 · Watch K. O'Hara's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Lincoln Red Imps FC (3-5-2)
Larne (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lincoln Red Imps FC 55%, the draw 27%, Larne 18%. It finished Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–2 Larne.
Lincoln Red Imps FC's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Lincoln Red Imps FC are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Lincoln Red Imps FC's 55%. The draw at 27% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Lincoln Red Imps FC at 55%?
Lincoln Red Imps FC sit 124 points higher on our strength rating — 1223 to 1099. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,714 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 51–24–25.
Why only 55%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 55% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Larne at 18%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Larne win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.3 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,101. The goals environment adds 3.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lincoln Red Imps FC have shed 138 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,627 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Lincoln Red Imps FC on 6 days' rest, Larne on 9. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 43,443 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Larne final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Paul O'Neill's goal against Lincoln Red Imps FC (84').
- Watch K. O'Hara's goal against Lincoln Red Imps FC (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–2 Larne. Explore more on the Lincoln Red Imps FC and Larne team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.