Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 21′Fafe, yellow card:
- 32′Pacos Ferreira, yellow card:
- Full-time
Match report
Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe — the facts
Fafe won 1–0 away against Pacos Ferreira (half-time 0–0).
Pacos Ferreira met Fafe in the Taça de Portugal (1/128-finals). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Team pages: Pacos Ferreira · Fafe · Taça de Portugal
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Pacos Ferreira 38%, the draw 30%, Fafe 32%. It finished Pacos Ferreira 0–0 Fafe.
Home ground outweighs Fafe's rating edge — Fafe are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground gives Pacos Ferreira the lean. The draw at 30% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Pacos Ferreira at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. Fafe sit 95 points higher on our strength rating — 1430 to 1524. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,549 such games.
Why only 38%?
Because Fafe are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 30% and Fafe at 32%.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,679. The goals environment adds 1.5 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Fafe arrive with 9 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Pacos Ferreira bring a 263-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Taça de Portugal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Pacos Ferreira and Fafe team pages or the Taça de Portugal page.