Sturm Graz vs Celje — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUEFAUEFA.comMatch Events
play_arrow4 clips- 17′Celje, yellow card:Foul
- 29′Celje, goal:0–1
- 40′Sturm Graz, goal:1–1
- 45′Celje, goal:1–2assist
- Half-time1 – 2
- 58′Celje, substitution:off
- 58′Celje, substitution:off
- 58′Sturm Graz, substitution:off
- 66′Celje, substitution:off
- 69′Sturm Graz, yellow card:Foul
- 73′Celje, goal:1–3
- 74′Sturm Graz, substitution:off
- 78′Celje, substitution:off
- 85′Sturm Graz, substitution:off
- 90+2′Celje, yellow card:Foul
- 90+3′Sturm Graz, goal:2–3assist
- Full-time2 – 3
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
Sturm Graz
Celje
Match report
Celje beat Sturm Graz 3-2 despite being outshot 30 to 8
Celje won 3-2 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau in the fourth round of the Europa League's league stage, taking the points from a match in which they were heavily outshot. Sturm Graz had 62% of the possession and 30 attempts at goal, yet conceded three times to a side that managed only eight shots.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Svit Sešlar put the visitors ahead after 29 minutes, but Oumar Diakité levelled for Sturm Graz in the 40th. Celje restored their lead on the stroke of half-time, Benjamin Verbič scoring in the 45th minute from Milot Avdyli's assist to make it 2-1 at the break.
Sešlar struck again in the 73rd minute to make it 3-1, and Sturm Graz were left chasing the game. Diakité scored his second in the 90+3 minute, set up by Gizo Mamageishvili, but there was no time left for a leveller. Celje's win ended a run of five games without a victory.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Celje a 30% chance of winning. Sturm Graz host Red Bull Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sunday, while Celje travel to Ferencvarosi TC in the Europa League on Thursday 26 November.
Sešlar scored twice for Celje, in the 29th and 73rd minutes, and earned the top rating in the match at 8.79. Diakité also scored twice for the hosts, including a stoppage-time goal.
Sturm Graz took 12 corners to Celje's two but still finished on the losing side.
Celje won 3–2 away against Sturm Graz (half-time 1–2).
Sturm Graz met Celje in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 4). Kick-off was Thursday, 5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili.
Team pages: Sturm Graz · Celje · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 29' Goal: Svit Sešlar — 0–1 · Watch Svit Sešlar's goal video (29')
- 40' Goal: Oumar Diakité — 1–1 · Watch Oumar Diakité's goal video (40')
- 45' Goal: Benjamin Verbič (assist: Milot Avdyli) — 1–2 · Watch Benjamin Verbič's goal video (45')
- 73' Goal: Svit Sešlar — 1–3 · Watch Svit Sešlar's goal video (73')
- 90+3' Goal: Oumar Diakité (assist: Gizo Mamageishvili) — 2–3
Starting line-ups
Sturm Graz (3-4-3)
Celje (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sturm Graz 45%, the draw 25%, Celje 30%. It finished Sturm Graz 2–3 Celje.
Sturm Graz's rating edge, with Celje's finishing a worry — Sturm Graz lead because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1531 to 1461, plus the usual home advantage, though Celje's recent finishing pulls the other way, as cold streaks like theirs have bounced back. The draw starts at 27% for a gap this size, then dips to 25% mainly because Europa League games draw less often.
Why Sturm Graz at 45%?
Sturm Graz sit 70 points higher on our strength rating — 1531 to 1461. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (23.2% vs 25.3% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 46.9% of 4,493 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 45%?
Celje sit -0.40 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,693 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Celje hold 10 more possession points (54 to 44 in recent games) across a 70-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,366 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,348. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.2 points off.
What did we measure but not count?
Celje are 2 games into a new manager (Z. Željkovič), appointed 21 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Otar Kiteishvili, an important player, Daniil Khudyakov and Seedy Jatta, rotation players, and Emran Soglo and Szymon Włodarczyk, on provisional ratings. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sturm Graz vs Celje final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Svit Sešlar's goal against Sturm Graz (29').
- Watch Oumar Diakité's goal against Celje (40').
- Watch Benjamin Verbič's goal against Sturm Graz (45').
- Watch Svit Sešlar's goal against Sturm Graz (73').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sturm Graz 2–3 Celje. Explore more on the Sturm Graz and Celje team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.