Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUEFAUEFA.comMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 6′Bayer Leverkusen, yellow card:Foul
- 38′Marseille, yellow card:Argument
- Half-time
- 54′Marseille, yellow card:Foul
- 68′Bayer Leverkusen, substitution:off
- 68′Bayer Leverkusen, substitution:off
- 71′Marseille, substitution:off
- 71′Marseille, substitution:off
- 77′Marseille, goal:0–1
- 79′Bayer Leverkusen, substitution:off
- 79′Bayer Leverkusen, substitution:off
- 84′Marseille, substitution:off
- 84′Marseille, substitution:off
- 90′Marseille, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time0 – 1
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Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille
Match report
Gouiri's late goal gives Marseille win at Bayer Leverkusen
Marseille won 1-0 at Bayer Leverkusen's BayArena in a UEFA Europa League league-stage matchday-four fixture, Amine Gouiri scoring the only goal in the 77th minute. The sides had been level at 0-0 at half-time, and the breakthrough arrived only 13 minutes from the end.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Leverkusen had the greater share of the ball, with 58% possession to Marseille's 42%, and led the shot count 10 to 8 and the corner count 6 to 2. Yet the chances were closely matched in quality: only three of the hosts' attempts and two of Marseille's tested the goalkeepers, and the match offered little in the way of clear openings before Gouiri struck.
Marseille's discipline was tested more than Leverkusen's, the visitors picking up three yellow cards to the hosts' one and conceding 12 fouls to seven. Nobody was sent off. For Leverkusen it followed a 4-2 home defeat by VfB Stuttgart in their previous game, while Marseille arrived after beating Toulouse 2-0.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Marseille a 24% chance of winning. Both sides are back in domestic action on Sunday 8 November: Marseille travel to Lens in Ligue 1, and Leverkusen are away to 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga.
Gouiri scored the decisive goal and earned the match's highest rating, 7.84. CJ Egan-Riley was next among Marseille's performers with a rating of 7.21.
Leverkusen won the corner count 6 to 2 but could not turn that territorial advantage into a goal.
Marseille won 1–0 away against Bayer Leverkusen (half-time 0–0).
Bayer Leverkusen met Marseille in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 4). Kick-off was Thursday, 5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at BayArena. Referee: Orel Grinfeld.
Team pages: Bayer Leverkusen · Marseille · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 77' Goal: Amine Gouiri — 0–1 · Watch Amine Gouiri's goal video (77')
Starting line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen (4-2-3-1)
Marseille (4-1-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bayer Leverkusen 54%, the draw 22%, Marseille 24%. It finished Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 Marseille.
Leverkusen's strength rating edge gives them a lean — Bayer Leverkusen sit 78 points higher on our strength rating, 1795 to 1717, and home sides in the UEFA Europa League generally do better than the global norm, so we give them 54% to Marseille's 24%. The draw starts at 27%, the usual rate for a gap this size, then drops to 22% because draws are less common in this competition and both teams' recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Bayer Leverkusen at 54%?
Bayer Leverkusen sit 78 points higher on our strength rating — 1795 to 1717. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 11,124 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (23.2% vs 25.3% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 46.9% of 4,493 games vs 44.6% across all 108,407 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 54%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 54% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and Marseille at 24%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,729. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.2 points off. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Doubtful: Emerson, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Bayer Leverkusen played 3 competitive matches between 25–31 October 2026 (UTC dates). Marseille played 2 matches in the same 14-day window before kickoff. The busier schedule is worth watching.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 Marseille. Explore more on the Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.