SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart — DFB Pokal: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow2 clips- 33′VfB Stuttgart, yellow card:Foul
- 37′SC Paderborn 07, red card:Serious foul
- 41′VfB Stuttgart, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 58′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 62′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 62′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- 68′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 68′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 75′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 75′SC Paderborn 07, substitution:off
- 85′SC Paderborn 07, yellow card:Foul
- 90′VfB Stuttgart, goal:0–1assist
- 90+2′VfB Stuttgart, substitution:off
- Full-time0 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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SC Paderborn 07
VfB Stuttgart
Match report
Undav's late goal sinks ten-man Paderborn as Stuttgart reach DFB Pokal last 16
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Paderborn 07 1-0 in the DFB Pokal Round of 32 at Home Deluxe Arena, Deniz Undav scoring in the 90th minute to settle a contest that had been goalless for almost its entire length. Stuttgart progressed after being made to wait until the very end.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match turned on the 37th minute, when Paderborn's Laurin Curda was sent off with the score at 0-0. The hosts reached half-time level and defended with ten men for more than 50 minutes after that, restricting Stuttgart to a single goal until the closing stages.
Stuttgart had 64 per cent of the possession against 36 per cent for Paderborn and produced 19 shots to 17, with five on target apiece. Their breakthrough came when Chris Führich supplied the pass for Undav to finish, ending a run of three games without a win for Sebastian Hoeneß's side.
Both clubs return to Bundesliga action on Saturday 31 October. Paderborn travel to Borussia Mönchengladbach, while Stuttgart are away at Bayer Leverkusen.
Fabian Bredlow earned the highest rating among the performers, 8.28, for Stuttgart. Match-winner Undav was rated 7.92 for his 90th-minute goal.
Stuttgart's expected goals figure of 3.22 against 0.92 for Paderborn underlined how much better the chances they created were, even though they needed until the 90th minute to score.
VfB Stuttgart won 1–0 away against SC Paderborn 07 (half-time 0–0).
SC Paderborn 07 met VfB Stuttgart in the DFB Pokal (Round of 32). Kick-off was Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 17:00 UTC at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee: Florian Badstubner.
Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · VfB Stuttgart · DFB Pokal
Key moments
- 37' Red card: Laurin Curda
- 90' Goal: Deniz Undav (assist: Chris Führich) — 0–1 · Watch Deniz Undav's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
SC Paderborn 07 (3-4-2-1)
VfB Stuttgart (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave SC Paderborn 07 26%, the draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart 48%. It finished SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart.
Stuttgart's strength rating edge gives them the lean — VfB Stuttgart sit 198 points higher on our strength rating, 1753 to 1555, which outweighs the usual home advantage SC Paderborn 07 start with and leaves us giving Stuttgart 48%. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, trimmed slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why VfB Stuttgart at 48%?
VfB Stuttgart sit 198 points higher on our strength rating — 1753 to 1555. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.4% of 7,194 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 26–27–47.
Why only 48%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 48% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and SC Paderborn 07 at 26%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,217.
What did we measure but not count?
VfB Stuttgart have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than SC Paderborn 07 in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. VfB Stuttgart are 198 rating points stronger, but this is a cup tie between sides from the same division — the kind heavy favorites have not put away at their league-day rate. Same-division cup favorites this heavy won 57.2% of 761 ties where the class table expected 58.9% — worst early in the season and, oddly, at home, where the usual cup home edge shrinks. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this DFB Pokal fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from SC Paderborn 07 0–1 VfB Stuttgart. Explore more on the SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart team pages or the DFB Pokal page.