Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsEkstraklasa TVYouTubeMatch Events
- 14′Lech Poznan, substitution:off
- 15′Legia Warszawa, yellow card:Foul
- 29′Legia Warszawa, substitution:off
- Half-time
- 46′Legia Warszawa, substitution:off
- 56′Lech Poznan, goal:0–1assist
- 60′Lech Poznan, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Lech Poznan, yellow card:Foul
- 67′Lech Poznan, substitution:off
- 67′Legia Warszawa, substitution:off
- 67′Legia Warszawa, substitution:off
- 67′Lech Poznan, substitution:off
- 67′Lech Poznan, substitution:off
- 71′Legia Warszawa, yellow card:Foul
- 74′Legia Warszawa, goal:1–1assist
- 81′Lech Poznan, substitution:off
- 85′Legia Warszawa, substitution:off
- 87′Lech Poznan, goal:1–2assist
- Full-time1 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznan
Match report
Lech Poznan snatch late win at Legia Warszawa to go top
Lech Poznan won 2-1 at Legia Warszawa at Polish Army Stadium in the Ekstraklasa on Matchday 12, Luis Palma scoring three minutes from time to settle a contest that had been goalless at half-time. The result ended Legia's run of 15 games unbeaten and was their first league defeat of the season, after 11 league games without losing.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Lech made the breakthrough in the 56th minute, Yannick Agnero finishing from Leo Bengtsson's assist to make it 1-0 to the visitors. Legia answered in the 74th minute, when Bohdan Viunnyk equalised from a Rafał Augustyniak pass, and the hosts appeared to have the momentum at 1-1.
The decisive moment arrived in the 87th minute. Daniel Håkans provided the assist and Palma scored to restore Lech's lead, which they protected to the final whistle. Legia had controlled much of the ball, with 56 per cent possession, and had 17 shots to Lech's 11, but could not find a second equaliser.
Lech finished the day top of the table on 28 points from 11 games, five clear of fourth-placed Legia on 23 points. Both sides are in action next on Saturday 31 October: Lech host Wisla Krakow, while Legia travel to Gornik Zabrze, both in the Ekstraklasa.
Rafał Augustyniak was the highest-rated player on the pitch at 8.3, supplying the assist for Viunnyk's equaliser. For Lech, Håkans set up Palma's winner, and goalkeeper Mateusz Lis was rated 7.5.
Legia had nine of their 17 shots on target against five of Lech's 11, yet still lost.
Lech Poznan won 2–1 away against Legia Warszawa (half-time 0–0).
Legia Warszawa met Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Polish Army Stadium. Referee: Szymon Marciniak.
Team pages: Legia Warszawa · Lech Poznan · Ekstraklasa
Key moments
- 56' Goal: Yannick Agnero (assist: Leo Bengtsson) — 0–1
- 74' Goal: Bohdan Viunnyk (assist: Rafał Augustyniak) — 1–1
- 87' Goal: Luis Palma (assist: Daniel Håkans) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Legia Warszawa (3-4-3)
Lech Poznan (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Legia Warszawa 42%, the draw 24%, Lech Poznan 34%. It finished Legia Warszawa 1–2 Lech Poznan.
Home advantage edges Legia past a stronger Lech — Lech Poznan sit 59 points higher on our strength rating, but Legia Warszawa's home advantage, helped by Lech's hot finishing streak likely cooling, gives Legia a slight lean at 42% to 34%. The draw starts at 29% for a gap this size and drops to 24% because both sides' recent games average 3.5 goals and a finishing streak trims it further.
Why Legia Warszawa at 42%?
Home ground, against the rating. Lech Poznan sit 59 points higher on our strength rating — 1664 to 1605. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 11,093 such games. Lech Poznan scored +0.46 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,631 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 42%?
Because Lech Poznan are the stronger side on our strength rating. Legia Warszawa scored +0.68 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,654 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,416. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 12 home Ekstraklasa games: 8 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 21 February 2026. It covers all 5 home Ekstraklasa games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 1 February 2026 — Legia Warszawa 1–2 Korona Kielce. Latest home league result: 11 October 2026 — Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow. Across 16,107 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.4%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. Lech Poznan won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Legia Warszawa. The record is 3 wins for Lech Poznan, 2 draws and 1 win for Legia Warszawa. These were 6 Ekstraklasa games played between 12 November 2023 and 26 April 2026. Latest meeting: 26 April 2026 — Lech Poznan 4–0 Legia Warszawa. In 6,078 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.1%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ekstraklasa fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Legia Warszawa 1–2 Lech Poznan. Explore more on the Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan team pages or the Ekstraklasa page.