FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 20′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:
- 26′San Jose Earthquakes, goal:0–1assist
- 34′FC Cincinnati, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′San Jose Earthquakes, substitution:off
- 57′San Jose Earthquakes, goal:1–2assist
- 60′San Jose Earthquakes, substitution:off
- 70′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 70′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 73′San Jose Earthquakes, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, goal:2–2assist
- 81′San Jose Earthquakes, substitution:off
- 81′San Jose Earthquakes, substitution:off
- 82′FC Cincinnati, goal:3–2assist
- 87′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:
- 88′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 88′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 89′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:
- 90′FC Cincinnati, goal:4–2assist
- 90+3′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- Full-time4 – 2
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Match report
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes — the facts
FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 (half-time 1–1).
FC Cincinnati met San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 18). Kick-off was Saturday, 1 August 2026, 23:30 UTC at TQL Stadium. Referee: Victor Rivas.
Team pages: FC Cincinnati · San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Daniel Munie (assist: Timo Werner) — 0–1
- 34' Goal: Bryan Ramírez (assist: Evander) — 1–1
- 57' Goal: Timo Werner (assist: Preston Judd) — 1–2
- 80' Goal: Tom Barlow (assist: Evander) — 2–2
- 82' Goal: Evander (assist: Obinna Nwobodo) — 3–2 · Watch Evander's goal video (82')
- 90' Goal: Ayoub Jabbari (assist: Tom Barlow) — 4–2
Starting line-ups
FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)
San Jose Earthquakes (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Cincinnati 52%, the draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes 24%. It finished FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes.
Level sides, home ground swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage gives FC Cincinnati the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why FC Cincinnati in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1617 to 1588. Sides this close won 45.7% of 14,440 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.8%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.5% of 5,056 games vs 44.9% across all 98,721 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 52%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. FC Cincinnati scored +0.99 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.3% of 1,442 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 4.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 16,823. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Cincinnati are missing 2 regular starters — Matthew Miazga, Gerardo Valenzuela — about 18% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. San Jose Earthquakes are missing 1 regular starter — Preston Judd — about 17% of their usual starting-XI weight. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes. Explore more on the FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes team pages or the Major League Soccer page.