FC Cincinnati vs DC United — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
- 14′FC Cincinnati, goal:1–0
- 38′DC United, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 54′DC United, yellow card:
- 55′FC Cincinnati, goal:2–1assist
- 67′DC United, substitution:off
- 69′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 79′DC United, substitution:off
- 79′DC United, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 80′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 87′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:
- 88′DC United, yellow card:
- 90′DC United, substitution:off
- 90′FC Cincinnati, substitution:off
- 90+5′FC Cincinnati, yellow card:
- Full-time2 – 1
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
FC Cincinnati
DC United
Match report
FC Cincinnati come from level to beat DC United 2-1 at TQL Stadium
FC Cincinnati beat DC United 2-1 at TQL Stadium in a Major League Soccer matchday 23 fixture, ending a run of two straight defeats. The hosts had lost 2-3 to New England Revolution and 0-2 to Columbus Crew in their previous two games, so the three points were a welcome change of direction.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
David Douděra put Cincinnati ahead in the 14th minute, but the lead lasted only until the 38th, when Kimito Nono levelled for the visitors from an assist by Peglow. The sides went in at 1-1, with DC United having reached the break on level terms despite a first half in which they were the less threatening side.
The decisive goal arrived in the 55th minute, when Teenage Hadebe scored from an Evander assist to make it 2-1. Cincinnati had 15 shots to 13 and put six on target to DC United's four, while the visitors saw slightly more of the ball with 53 per cent possession. Neither side had a player sent off, and each was booked twice.
The result left Cincinnati 17th on 39 points, while DC United stayed 26th on 33. Both sides meet again on Saturday in Major League Soccer, with DC United at home to Cincinnati.
Nick Hagglund was the top-rated performer in the Cincinnati side with a rating of 7.93, though he did not score or assist. Hadebe followed on 7.79 after scoring the winning goal.
Cincinnati's expected goals figure of 1.85 against 0.97 for DC United reflected the better of the chances created in the match.
FC Cincinnati beat DC United 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
FC Cincinnati met DC United in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 23). Kick-off was Wednesday, 21 October 2026, 23:00 UTC at TQL Stadium. Referee: Timothy Ford. Attendance: 25,513.
Team pages: FC Cincinnati · DC United · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 14' Goal: David Douděra — 1–0
- 38' Goal: Kimito Nono (assist: Peglow) — 1–1
- 55' Goal: Teenage Hadebe (assist: Evander) — 2–1
Starting line-ups
FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)
DC United (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Cincinnati 64%, the draw 20%, DC United 16%. It finished FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United.
Stronger rating puts FC Cincinnati clearly ahead — We give FC Cincinnati 64% mainly because they sit 90 points higher on our strength rating, 1459 to 1369, and home sides in Major League Soccer tend to do better than the global norm. The draw starts from the usual 25% for a gap this size and falls to 20%, lowered by both teams' recent games averaging 3.5 goals and by both sides' finishing streaks.
Why FC Cincinnati at 64%?
FC Cincinnati sit 90 points higher on our strength rating — 1459 to 1369. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,382 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,252 games vs 44.6% across all 101,480 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. FC Cincinnati sit -0.38 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.6% of 2,561 such games where the class table expected 35.8%. The 300 most similar past games finished 49–26–25.
Why only 64%?
DC United sit -0.61 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.6% of 2,561 such games where the class table expected 35.8%.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 17,071. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Cincinnati have averaged 20 percentage points more possession than DC United in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. FC Cincinnati have shed 78 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,629 such games vs 33.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Cincinnati vs DC United final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United. Explore more on the FC Cincinnati and DC United team pages or the Major League Soccer page.