Atlanta United FC vs 10.10.26 23:301 – 3Full Time
FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
FC Cincinnati come from level to beat Atlanta United FC 3-1
FC Cincinnati won 3-1 at Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer on Matchday 28, scoring three times after a goalless first half at Atlanta Stadium. Kévin Denkey scored twice, the second deep into stoppage time, to leave the home side at the bottom of the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Denkey broke the deadlock in the 52nd minute, converting a chance created by Tom Barlow. Atlanta responded in the 69th minute when Miguel Almirón finished after a pass from Breel Embolo, making it 1-1 and giving the hosts a lift.
The visitors regained the lead in the 84th minute. Barlow, who had set up the opener, got on the end of a Kyle Smith delivery to make it 2-1. Atlanta pressed for another equaliser, but Denkey sealed the result in the 90+7th minute, finishing from an Ender Echenique assist.
Atlanta, 28th with 27 points from 28 matches, had enjoyed 56 per cent of possession and 16 shots to 13. Cincinnati moved to 36 points from 27 matches, 17th in the standings, having arrived on a run of three defeats in their previous five league outings.
Kévin Denkey scored twice, in the 52nd and 90+7th minutes, to earn the match's highest rating of 8.73. Tom Barlow followed with a goal and an assist.
Atlanta had 56 per cent of the possession but could not turn it into a result.
FC Cincinnati won 3–1 away against Atlanta United FC (half-time 0–0).
Atlanta United FC met FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 28). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC at Atlanta Stadium. Referee: Fotis Bazakos. Attendance: 36,286.
Team pages: Atlanta United FC · FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 52' Goal: Kévin Denkey (assist: Tom Barlow) — 0–1 · Watch Kévin Denkey's goal video (52')
- 69' Goal: Miguel Almirón (assist: Breel Embolo) — 1–1 · Watch Miguel Almirón's goal video (69')
- 84' Goal: Tom Barlow (assist: Kyle Smith) — 1–2 · Watch Tom Barlow's goal video (84')
- 90+7' Goal: Kévin Denkey (assist: Ender Echenique) — 1–3 · Watch Kévin Denkey's goal video (90+7')
Starting line-ups
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
FC Cincinnati (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Atlanta United FC 36%, the draw 25%, FC Cincinnati 39%. It finished Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati.
FC Cincinnati's rating edge outweighs Atlanta United FC's home ground — FC Cincinnati are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives FC Cincinnati the lean. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why FC Cincinnati at 39%?
FC Cincinnati sit 81 points higher on our strength rating — 1396 to 1477. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,810 such games. FC Cincinnati hold 6 more possession points (54 to 48 in recent games) across a 81-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,609 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–31–32.
Why only 39%?
Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,207 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Cincinnati have shed 69 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,577 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. In our recorded league results, FC Cincinnati are winless in their last 8 away games: 4 draws and 4 defeats. The run began on 9 May 2026. Last recorded away league win: 3 May 2026 — Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati. Latest recorded away league result: 26 September 2026 — CF Montreal 3–1 FC Cincinnati. Across 13,731 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 25.6%, compared with 25.0% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Kévin Denkey's goal against Atlanta United FC (52').
- Watch Miguel Almirón's goal against FC Cincinnati (69').
- Watch Tom Barlow's goal against Atlanta United FC (84').
- Watch Kévin Denkey's goal against Atlanta United FC (90+7').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati. Explore more on the Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati team pages or the Major League Soccer page.