Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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BarnsleyAldershot TownBarnsleyAldershot TownMatch preview
Barnsley vs Aldershot Town — the facts
Barnsley meet Aldershot Town in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Oakwell Ground.
Team pages: Barnsley · Aldershot Town · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Barnsley 40% · Draw 26% · Aldershot Town 34%
Home advantage edges Barnsley past stronger Aldershot — Aldershot Town sit 47 points higher on our strength rating, 1368 to 1321, but Barnsley's usual home advantage is enough to give them a slight lean at 40% to 34%. The draw starts from 29%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 26% because both sides' own recent games average 4.0 goals.
Why Barnsley at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. Aldershot Town sit 47 points higher on our strength rating — 1368 to 1321. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 40%?
Because Aldershot Town are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 26% and Aldershot Town at 34%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 4.0 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Aldershot Town arrive with 11 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Barnsley bring a 403-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Barnsley vs Aldershot Town, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Barnsley and Aldershot Town team pages or the FA Cup page.