Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsAston Villa Football ClubYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 25′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 43′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- 45′Aston Villa, yellow card:Argument
- 45+3′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 46′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 46′Nottingham Forest, goal:0–1assist
- 56′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- 63′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 63′Aston Villa, substitution:off
- 74′Aston Villa, goal:1–1assist
- 74′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Argument
- 75′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 80′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- 82′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 88′Nottingham Forest, goal:1–2assist
- 90+1′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 90+5′Aston Villa, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 2
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Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Match report
Nottingham Forest edge Aston Villa 2-1 at Villa Park
Nottingham Forest came from behind in spirit but ahead on the scoreboard to beat Aston Villa 2-1 in a Premier League fixture at Villa Park. The scoreline stayed goalless at half-time before three goals arrived in the second period to settle a contest played across matchday four of the English top flight.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Liam Delap put the visitors ahead within a minute of the restart, turning in a Murillo assist to make it 0-1. Villa responded through Alysson Edward, who converted a John McGinn pass in the 74th minute to level the match at 1-1. Forest retook the lead late on when Igor Jesus finished off a Morgan Gibbs-White assist in the 88th minute, making it 1-2 and securing the win.
Villa held more of the ball, with 53 percent possession to Forest's 47, but Forest were far more clinical in front of goal, firing 22 shots to the home side's seven and forcing seven on target against Villa's five. Forest also picked up more cards, with five yellows to Villa's two, in a match short on corners for the visitors but not on end product.
Alysson Edward scored Villa's equaliser and finished with the highest match rating of 7.86, narrowly ahead of goalscorers Igor Jesus and Liam Delap on the Forest side.
Despite having less of the ball, Forest outshot Villa by a wide margin, registering 22 attempts to Villa's seven.
Nottingham Forest won 2–1 away against Aston Villa (half-time 0–0).
Aston Villa met Nottingham Forest in the Premier League (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC at Villa Park. Referee: Andy Madley.
Team pages: Aston Villa · Nottingham Forest · Premier League
Key moments
- 46' Goal: Liam Delap (assist: Murillo) — 0–1 · Watch Liam Delap's goal video (46')
- 74' Goal: Alysson (assist: John McGinn) — 1–1 · Watch Alysson's goal video (74')
- 88' Goal: Igor Jesus (assist: Morgan Gibbs-White) — 1–2 · Watch Igor Jesus's goal video (88')
Starting line-ups
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
- 26 Matz Sels
- 5 Murillo
- 2 Ousmane Diomande
- 34 Ola Aina
- 3 Neco Williams
- 21 Xaver Schlager
- 24 James McAtee
- 27 Daniel Muñoz
- 10 Morgan Gibbs-White (c)
- 14 Dan Ndoye
- 19 Liam Delap
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Aston Villa 45%, the draw 28%, Nottingham Forest 27%. It finished Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest.
Aston Villa's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Aston Villa are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and that is most of Aston Villa's 45%. The draw at 28% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Aston Villa at 45%?
Aston Villa sit 89 points higher on our strength rating — 1956 to 1868. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.5% of 10,454 such games.
Why only 45%?
Nottingham Forest sit -0.40 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.5% of 1,362 games, vs 29.1% for visitors finishing normally. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Aston Villa's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Nottingham Forest win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,048. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Aston Villa come into this after a busy window — 11 arrivals and 10 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Aston Villa have won the last 5 home meetings with Nottingham Forest. Streaks like this look decisive, but sides on a 3+ home run in a fixture won 58.9% of 4,902 such games vs 58.4% class-expected — the strength that built the streak is already in the rating. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Liam Delap's goal against Aston Villa (46').
- Watch Alysson's goal against Nottingham Forest (74').
- Watch Igor Jesus's goal against Aston Villa (88').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest. Explore more on the Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest team pages or the Premier League page.