Nottingham Forest vs Coventry — Premier League: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 46′Coventry, substitution:off
- 55′Coventry, goal:0–1assist
- 59′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Argument
- 59′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 73′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 74′Coventry, substitution:off
- 83′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 83′Nottingham Forest, substitution:off
- 88′Nottingham Forest, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 90+1′Coventry, substitution:off
- 90+4′Nottingham Forest, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time0 – 1
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Nottingham Forest
Coventry
Match report
Coventry stun Nottingham Forest with Dasilva strike
Nottingham Forest suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Coventry in a Premier League Regular Season - 5 fixture at City Ground, leaving Forest without a win in three matches while Coventry picked up a rare three points on the road.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The game was goalless at half-time despite Forest's territorial dominance, but Coventry broke the deadlock in the 55th minute when Jay Dasilva finished off a Carl Rushworth assist to make it 0-1, a lead the visitors never relinquished.
Forest pressed for an equaliser and dominated possession and shots throughout, but could not find a way past Coventry, who held firm to secure only their second win in five league outings this season. The result lifted Coventry off the foot of the pressure while Forest stayed 12th, five points from five games.
Jay Dasilva scored the only goal of the match, converting Carl Rushworth's assist in the 55th minute, and was rated the top performer on the pitch with a 7.7 mark.
Forest dominated the ball with 63% possession but could not convert their territorial control into a goal.
Coventry won 1–0 away against Nottingham Forest (half-time 0–0).
Nottingham Forest met Coventry in the Premier League (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 19 September 2026, 16:30 UTC at City Ground. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Team pages: Nottingham Forest · Coventry · Premier League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: Jay Dasilva (assist: Carl Rushworth) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
- 26 Matz Sels
- 5 Murillo
- 2 Ousmane Diomande
- 23 Jair
- 3 Neco Williams
- 21 Xaver Schlager
- 24 James McAtee
- 27 Daniel Muñoz
- 14 Dan Ndoye
- 10 Morgan Gibbs-White (c)
- 19 Liam Delap
Coventry (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nottingham Forest 69%, the draw 20%, Coventry 11%. It finished Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry.
Nottingham Forest's rating gap decides it — Nottingham Forest are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover on top gives Nottingham Forest a clear lead. The draw at 20% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Nottingham Forest at 69%?
Nottingham Forest sit 209 points higher on our strength rating — 1883 to 1675. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.1% of 6,004 such games. Nottingham Forest sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 39.0% of 2,454 such games where the class table expected 36.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 69–16–15.
Why only 69%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Nottingham Forest's column. Across 11,181 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,242. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Coventry average 8 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 209 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Coventry are newly promoted — game 5 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry. Explore more on the Nottingham Forest and Coventry team pages or the Premier League page.