Match report
Coventry vs Newcastle — the facts
Coventry beat Newcastle 4–1 (half-time 1–0).
Coventry met Newcastle in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Monday, 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Coventry Building Society Arena. Referee: John Brooks. Attendance: 30,811.
Team pages: Coventry · Newcastle · Premier League
Key moments
- 6' Goal (penalty): Jack Rudoni — 1–0 · Watch Jack Rudoni's goal video (6')
- 48' Goal: Sidiki Cherif — 2–0 · Watch Sidiki Cherif's goal video (48')
- 70' Goal: Sven Botman (assist: Nico González) — 2–1 · Watch Sven Botman's goal video (70')
- 81' Goal: Ellis Simms (assist: Brandon Thomas-Asante) — 3–1 · Watch Ellis Simms's goal video (81')
- 86' Goal: Stephen Mfuni (assist: Jay Dasilva) — 4–1 · Watch Stephen Mfuni's goal video (86')
Starting line-ups
Coventry (4-2-3-1)
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Coventry 19%, the draw 20%, Newcastle 61%. It finished Coventry 4–1 Newcastle.
Newcastle's strength gap drives a clear lead — We give Newcastle 61% mainly because our strength rating has them 237 points higher, 1799 to 1562, and early-season fixtures trim Coventry's home chances a little further. The draw sits at 20%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, with high-scoring recent games nudging it down and the early season nudging it back up.
Why Newcastle at 61%?
Newcastle sit 237 points higher on our strength rating — 1799 to 1562. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,682 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Coventry's column. Across 11,294 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 19–19–62.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 20% and Coventry at 19%.
Why is the draw only 20%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,894. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Coventry are newly promoted — game 6 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. Newcastle have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Coventry vs Newcastle final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jack Rudoni's goal against Newcastle (6').
- Watch Sidiki Cherif's goal against Newcastle (48').
- Watch Sven Botman's goal against Coventry (70').
- Watch Ellis Simms's goal against Newcastle (81').
- Watch Stephen Mfuni's goal against Newcastle (86').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Coventry 4–1 Newcastle. Explore more on the Coventry and Newcastle team pages or the Premier League page.