Alaves vs 28.08.26 19:301 – 0Full Time
Villarreal — La Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Alaves edge Villarreal despite being second best on the ball
Alaves beat Villarreal 1-0 in a La Liga Regular Season - 3 fixture at Estadio Mendizorrotza, moving to the top of the table after the win. The only goal of the match arrived in the 31st minute, when Lucas Boyé converted an assist from Angel Pérez to put the home side ahead, a lead they held through half-time and to the final whistle.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Despite winning, Alaves saw far less of the ball, with Villarreal dominating possession at 75 percent to 25 and outshooting their hosts 18 to 9, including 6 shots on target against Alaves' 2. Villarreal also edged the expected goals count 1.28 to 0.81, but were unable to find a way past the home defence after falling behind.
Alaves goalkeeper Sivera was the standout figure in the win, rated 8.0, with Jonny also impressing at 7.7. For Villarreal, Juan Foyth was the top-rated performer at 7.6, though it was not enough to prevent a first defeat in a run that had seen them unbeaten across their previous five matches.
Sivera produced the top individual rating of the match at 8.0 for Alaves, marshalling a defence that faced 18 shots from Villarreal.
Villarreal controlled 75 percent of possession yet left Estadio Mendizorrotza empty-handed.
Alaves beat Villarreal 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Alaves met Villarreal in the La Liga (Regular Season - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos.
Team pages: Alaves · Villarreal · La Liga
Key moments
- 31' Goal: Lucas Boyé (assist: Angel Pérez) — 1–0 · Watch Lucas Boyé's goal video (31')
Starting line-ups
Alaves (5-3-2)
- 1 Sivera
- 21 Abde Rebbach
- 17 Jonny
- 16 Ville Koski
- 14 Nahuel Tenaglia
- 7 Angel Pérez
- 18 Mikel Rodríguez
- 8 Antonio Blanco (c)
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez
- 15 Lucas Boyé
- 11 Toni Martínez
Villarreal (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Alaves 31%, the draw 28%, Villarreal 41%. It finished Alaves 1–0 Villarreal.
Villarreal's rating edge outweighs Alaves' home ground — Villarreal are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball plus the early-season home fade on top give Villarreal the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Villarreal at 41%?
Villarreal sit 146 points higher on our strength rating — 1801 to 1947. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,105 such games. Villarreal hold 6 more possession points (49 to 43 in recent games) across a 146-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,633 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Alaves's column. Across 10,741 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–30–38.
Why only 41%?
La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.2%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,100 games vs 44.9% across all 99,436 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,018. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Villarreal scored +0.58 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,797 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Alaves's last five: W-W-L-W-D — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2195 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4007 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Alaves vs Villarreal final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this La Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Alaves 1–0 Villarreal. Explore more on the Alaves and Villarreal team pages or the La Liga page.