Levante vs PostponedOriginally scheduled 16 Sept, 19:30Athletic Club — La Liga: stats, lineups & analysis

Match preview

Levante vs Athletic Club — the facts

Levante meet Athletic Club in the La Liga (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off is Wednesday, 16 September 2026, 19:30 UTC at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.

Team pages: Levante · Athletic Club · La Liga

Starting line-ups

Levante (4-3-3)

Athletic Club (4-2-3-1)

Sirius · Why these numbers

Levante 40% · Draw 28% · Athletic Club 32%

Home ground outweighs Athletic Club's rating edge — Athletic Club are the stronger side on our strength rating, but La Liga home advantage gives Levante the lean. The draw at 28% is held down by a high-scoring environment.

Why Levante at 40%?

Home ground, against the rating. Athletic Club sit 64 points higher on our strength rating — 1765 to 1829. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,639 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.2%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,134 games vs 44.9% across all 100,233 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.

Why only 40%?

Because Athletic Club are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Levante's column. Across 11,167 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.

Why the draw at 28%?

With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,225. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.

What did we measure but not count?

Levante come into this after a busy window — 10 arrivals, 15 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Athletic Club are missing 1 regular starter — Iñaki Williams — about 22% of their usual starting-XI weight. A body count alone told us nothing. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.

Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab

About this match

On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Levante vs Athletic Club, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.

Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.

Explore more on the Levante and Athletic Club team pages or the La Liga page.