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- 18′Villarreal, substitution:off
- 21′Espanyol, yellow card:
- 41′Espanyol, yellow card:
- Half-time
- 50′Espanyol, goal disallowed:Goal Disallowed
- 53′Villarreal, yellow card:
- 56′Villarreal, yellow card:
- 59′Villarreal, substitution:off
- 59′Villarreal, substitution:off
- 60′Espanyol, goal:0–1assist
- 61′Espanyol, substitution:off
- 61′Espanyol, substitution:off
- 75′Espanyol, yellow card:
- 77′Espanyol, substitution:off
- 77′Espanyol, substitution:Jan PeriesoffAlejandro Santiago
- 80′Villarreal, substitution:off
- 80′Villarreal, substitution:off
- 88′Espanyol, substitution:off
- 90+1′Villarreal, yellow card:
- Full-time0 – 1
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Villarreal
Espanyol
Match report
Espanyol edge Villarreal 1-0 with Cabrera's second-half goal
Espanyol won 1-0 at Villarreal's Estadio de la Cerámica on Matchday 11 of La Liga, ending a run of 6 games without a win. The visitors took the points despite being outplayed on the numbers, and the result lifted them from 18th to 12th in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, and the breakthrough came in the 60th minute. Bryan Zaragoza supplied the assist and Leandro Cabrera finished to make it 1-0 to the away side. Villarreal had no reply across the remaining half of the match.
Villarreal controlled the ball with 63% possession to Espanyol's 37% and had 14 shots to 5, with seven corners to three. Even so, they managed only four shots on target against Espanyol's three, and the hosts stayed 10th on 12 points, one ahead of their opponents.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Espanyol a 12% chance of winning. Villarreal host Paris Saint Germain in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, while Espanyol entertain Deportivo La Coruna in La Liga on Saturday 7 November.
Cabrera scored the only goal of the match, converting Zaragoza's assist in the 60th minute. Ángel Fortuño, also of Espanyol, took the highest rating among the top performers at 8.13, just ahead of Cabrera on 7.57.
Villarreal had 14 shots to Espanyol's 5, yet still failed to find the net.
Espanyol won 1–0 away against Villarreal (half-time 0–0).
Villarreal met Espanyol in the La Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Friday, 30 October 2026, 20:00 UTC at Estadio de la Cerámica. Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez. Attendance: 17,486.
Team pages: Villarreal · Espanyol · La Liga
Key moments
- 60' Goal: Leandro Cabrera (assist: Bryan Zaragoza) — 0–1
Starting line-ups
Villarreal (4-4-2)
Espanyol (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Ángel Fortuño
- 21 Roger Hinojo
- 6 Leandro Cabrera
- 16 Vanja Drkušić
- 23 Omar El Hilali
- 8 Edu Expósito
- 26 Rafel Bauzà
- 15 Bryan Zaragoza
- 28 Javi Hernández
- 36 Alejandro Santiago Vargas
- 9 Roberto Fernández
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Villarreal 70%, the draw 18%, Espanyol 12%. It finished Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol.
Villarreal's clear strength edge shapes a one-sided forecast — We give Villarreal 70% mainly because our strength rating puts them 169 points higher, 1755 to 1585, and home advantage running strong across La Liga adds a little more. The draw starts near 20%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 18% because both teams' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Villarreal at 70%?
Villarreal sit 169 points higher on our strength rating — 1755 to 1585. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,072 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,179 games vs 44.6% across all 108,189 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 71–17–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Espanyol at 12%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,498. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Villarreal have averaged 10 percentage points more possession than Espanyol in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Espanyol have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Villarreal vs Espanyol final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this La Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol. Explore more on the Villarreal and Espanyol team pages or the La Liga page.