PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag — Eredivisie: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 40′ADO Den Haag, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 45′PEC Zwolle, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′ADO Den Haag, substitution:off
- 46′ADO Den Haag, substitution:off
- 48′ADO Den Haag, yellow card:Foul
- 52′ADO Den Haag, yellow card:Foul
- 60′PEC Zwolle, substitution:off
- 61′ADO Den Haag, substitution:off
- 61′ADO Den Haag, substitution:off
- 65′PEC Zwolle, yellow card:Foul
- 72′ADO Den Haag, yellow card:Foul
- 73′PEC Zwolle, substitution:off
- 74′PEC Zwolle, substitution:off
- 78′ADO Den Haag, substitution:off
- 79′PEC Zwolle, yellow card:Foul
- 81′PEC Zwolle, yellow card:Foul
- 88′PEC Zwolle, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Assist
Player Ratings
PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag
Match report
PEC Zwolle edge ADO Den Haag thanks to Mbayo's late first-half strike
PEC Zwolle beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 in the Eredivisie on matchday 11 at MAC³PARK Stadion, the only goal arriving in the 45th minute. Dylan Mbayo scored it, set up by Younes Namli, and the hosts then protected the lead through the second half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The scoreline flattered the visitors less than the possession figures suggested. ADO Den Haag held 66% of the ball against 34% for Zwolle, yet the hosts had 24 shots to 12 and won eight corners to two. Zwolle's expected goals figure was 1.48 against 0.52 for the visitors, a fair reflection of who created the better openings.
The result lifted Zwolle from 15th to 14th, on 11 points, while ADO stayed 17th on six points, five behind their opponents. Zwolle had lost three of their previous five league games, including a 2-1 home defeat to FC OSS in their last outing, while ADO had drawn their last away game 1-1 at Excelsior '31.
Zwolle travel to Willem II on Friday 6 November in the Eredivisie, and ADO Den Haag host Sparta Rotterdam in the same competition the following day.
Mbayo scored the decisive goal and earned a rating of 7.71, while Namli's assist for it brought him 7.70. The highest rating of the match, 7.91, went to ADO's Kilian Nikiéma in defeat.
Zwolle won the shot count 24 to 12 despite having only 34% of possession.
PEC Zwolle beat ADO Den Haag 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
PEC Zwolle met ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 11:15 UTC at MAC³PARK Stadion. Referee: Jeroen Manschot.
Team pages: PEC Zwolle · ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Dylan Mbayo (assist: Younes Namli) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
PEC Zwolle (4-3-3)
ADO Den Haag (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave PEC Zwolle 58%, the draw 23%, ADO Den Haag 19%. It finished PEC Zwolle 1–0 ADO Den Haag.
Strength rating puts PEC Zwolle clearly ahead — We give PEC Zwolle 58% mainly because our strength rating has them 91 points higher, 1418 to 1327, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw starts at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 23% because both sides' own recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why PEC Zwolle at 58%?
PEC Zwolle sit 91 points higher on our strength rating — 1418 to 1327. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,375 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 49–30–21.
Why only 58%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 58% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and ADO Den Haag at 19%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,539. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
PEC Zwolle are 2 games into a new manager (Mirjam Clifford), appointed 7 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Sherel Floranus, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag team pages or the Eredivisie page.