Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 32′Heerenveen, yellow card:Argument
- 32′NEC Nijmegen, yellow card:Argument
- 34′NEC Nijmegen, yellow card:Dissent
- 43′Heerenveen, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 61′Heerenveen, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 66′Heerenveen, goal:1–0assist
- 73′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 73′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 78′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 78′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- 79′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 85′NEC Nijmegen, yellow card:Foul
- 85′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 86′NEC Nijmegen, substitution:off
- 90+2′Heerenveen, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Assist
Player Ratings
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
Match report
Heerenveen edge NEC Nijmegen as Vente strikes on the break
Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on Eredivisie matchday 11, Dylan Vente's goal in the 66th minute settling a game that had been goalless at half-time. The result lifted the hosts from seventh place on 15 points to seventh on 18, and left them seven points clear of their opponents.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The visitors dominated the ball, finishing with 62% possession and 21 shots to 8, and they also won seven corners to five. Yet the contest was decided by a single moment. Levi Smans supplied the pass and Vente finished it, giving Heerenveen the lead and the only goal of the afternoon.
NEC Nijmegen, managed by Dick Schreuder, could not turn their territorial edge into a leveller, with both sides managing just two shots on target. Their run of six games unbeaten ended, while Heerenveen, under Robin Veldeman, won a fourth game in a row. Heerenveen host Feyenoord in the Eredivisie on Sunday, while NEC Nijmegen entertain Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday.
Dylan Vente scored the winning goal in the 66th minute, finishing a move created by Levi Smans, and earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 7.77. Smans' assist made him Heerenveen's other leading performer.
NEC Nijmegen had 21 shots to Heerenveen's 8 but could not find a way past the hosts' defence.
Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Heerenveen met NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off was Saturday, 31 October 2026, 17:45 UTC at Abe Lenstra Stadion. Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Team pages: Heerenveen · NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 66' Goal: Dylan Vente (assist: Levi Smans) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Heerenveen (4-2-3-1)
NEC Nijmegen (3-1-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Heerenveen 48%, the draw 25%, NEC Nijmegen 27%. It finished Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen.
Home advantage gives Heerenveen a slight edge — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, 1590 to 1568, so the usual home advantage is what puts Heerenveen in front at 48%. The draw starts from the usual 27.5% for sides this level and drops to 25% because both teams' own recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Heerenveen in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1590 to 1568. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,561 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 25% and NEC Nijmegen at 27%.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,505. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
NEC Nijmegen come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 14 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Out: Dušan Tadić, an important player, and Philippe Sandler, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen team pages or the Eredivisie page.