FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow2 clips- 31′FK Tobol Kostanay, yellow card:Foul
- 33′Panevėžys, goal:0–1assist
- 34′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
- 35′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 45′FK Tobol Kostanay, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 52′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
- 57′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
- 63′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 65′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 65′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 77′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 77′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 84′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 84′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 90′FK Tobol Kostanay, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 1
- 98′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- Half-time · E.T.1 – 1
- 106′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- 106′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 115′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 118′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
FK Tobol Kostanay3
Panevėžys2Lineups
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Match report
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys — the facts
FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1). FK Tobol Kostanay won the penalty shootout 3–2.
FK Tobol Kostanay met Panevėžys in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 30 July 2026, 14:00 UTC at Centralnyj Stadion. Referee: Denys Shurman.
Team pages: FK Tobol Kostanay · Panevėžys · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 33' Goal: Nauris Petkevičius (assist: Isaac Asante) — 0–1 · Watch Nauris Petkevičius's goal video (33')
- 45' Goal: Amine Talal (assist: Islam Chesnokov) — 1–1 · Watch Amine Talal's goal video (45')
Starting line-ups
FK Tobol Kostanay (4-2-3-1)
Panevėžys (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FK Tobol Kostanay 56%, the draw 26%, Panevėžys 18%. It finished FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 Panevėžys.
FK Tobol Kostanay's rating edge carries it — FK Tobol Kostanay are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of FK Tobol Kostanay's 56%. The draw at 26% is up from the usual 24.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why FK Tobol Kostanay at 56%?
FK Tobol Kostanay sit 178 points higher on our strength rating — 1338 to 1160. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.2% of 12,618 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 55–25–20.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Panevėžys at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,463. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Panevėžys have 17 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to a conservative baseline from the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Nauris Petkevičius's goal against FK Tobol Kostanay (33').
- Watch Amine Talal's goal against Panevėžys (45').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 Panevėžys. Explore more on the FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.