Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay — UEFA Europa Conference League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
play_arrow3 clips- 22′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
- 35′FK Tobol Kostanay, yellow card:Luis GuerraFoul
- 41′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:D. Ustimenkooff
- 45′Panevėžys, goal:1–0
- 45+2′Panevėžys, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:offD. Zhumat
- 58′Panevėžys, yellow card:Kwadwo AsamoahFoul
- 60′FK Tobol Kostanay, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 63′Panevėžys, yellow card:Parfait BizozaFoul
- 71′Panevėžys, substitution:O. KurtsevoffK. Asamoah
- 71′Panevėžys, substitution:M. Bacaninoff
- 71′Panevėžys, substitution:S. Kouadiooff
- 71′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:offL. Guerra
- 77′Panevėžys, substitution:offD. Balsys
- 84′FK Tobol Kostanay, goal:1–1assist
- 86′FK Tobol Kostanay, yellow card:Foul
- 87′FK Tobol Kostanay, substitution:off
- 88′Panevėžys, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
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Match report
Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay — the facts
Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Panevėžys met FK Tobol Kostanay in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round). Kick-off was Thursday, 23 July 2026, 15:30 UTC at Aukstaitijos Stadium. Referee: U. Aslam.
Team pages: Panevėžys · FK Tobol Kostanay · UEFA Europa Conference League
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Seydina Keita — 1–0 · Watch Seydina Keita's goal video (45')
- 84' Goal: Nemanja Cavnić (assist: Askhat Tagybergen) — 1–1 · Watch Nemanja Cavnić's goal video (84')
Starting line-ups
Panevėžys (4-3-3)
FK Tobol Kostanay (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Panevėžys 32%, the draw 29%, FK Tobol Kostanay 39%. It finished Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay.
FK Tobol Kostanay's rating edge outweighs Panevėžys' home ground — FK Tobol Kostanay are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of FK Tobol Kostanay's 39%. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 27.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why FK Tobol Kostanay at 39%?
FK Tobol Kostanay sit 178 points higher on our strength rating — 1160 to 1338. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 12,924 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 37–27–36.
Why only 39%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 39% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Panevėžys at 32%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,383. The goals environment adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Panevėžys have 16 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to a conservative baseline from the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Seydina Keita's goal against FK Tobol Kostanay (45').
- Watch Nemanja Cavnić's goal against Panevėžys (84').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay. Explore more on the Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay team pages or the UEFA Europa Conference League page.