Lincoln vs 22.08.26 11:301 – 3Full Time
Portsmouth — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Portsmouth strike three times to sink Lincoln at LNER stadium
Portsmouth beat Lincoln 3-1 in a Championship fixture at LNER stadium, dominating for long spells despite Lincoln enjoying the lion's share of possession. The result lifted John Mousinho's side to ninth in the table, while Tom Shaw's Lincoln remained without a point after two games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Portsmouth made the early running through R. Kavuma McQueen, who converted an Abu Kamara assist in the seventh minute, before Adrian Segecic doubled the lead on 16 minutes. Reeco Hackett pulled one back for Lincoln from the penalty spot in the 32nd minute, but the visitors went in 2-1 up at the interval.
Ebrima Adams put the outcome beyond doubt in the 69th minute, converting to make it 3-1 and complete the scoring. Lincoln pressed with 61 per cent of the ball and forced 11 shots to Portsmouth's 13, but their finishing lacked the sharpness their opponents showed in front of goal.
Segecic scored once and posted a 7.9 rating to edge out his teammates as Portsmouth's top performer, with McQueen's goal and Kamara's assist also central to the win.
Despite having just 39 per cent of possession, Portsmouth generated an expected goals figure of 2.09 compared with Lincoln's 0.71, reflecting the visitors' clinical edge.
Portsmouth won 3–1 away against Lincoln (half-time 1–2).
Lincoln met Portsmouth in the Championship (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC at Sincil Bank. Referee: Tony Harrington.
Team pages: Lincoln · Portsmouth · Championship
Key moments
- 7' Goal: R. Kavuma McQueen (assist: Abu Kamara) — 0–1 · Watch R. Kavuma McQueen's goal video (7')
- 16' Goal: Adrian Segecic — 0–2 · Watch Adrian Segecic's goal video (16')
- 32' Goal (penalty): Reeco Hackett — 1–2 · Watch Reeco Hackett's goal video (32')
- 69' Goal: Ebrima Adams — 1–3
Starting line-ups
Lincoln (4-2-3-1)
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lincoln 68%, the draw 21%, Portsmouth 11%. It finished Lincoln 1–3 Portsmouth.
Lincoln's rating gap decides it — Lincoln are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Lincoln's 68%. The draw at 21% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why Lincoln at 68%?
Lincoln sit 296 points higher on our strength rating — 1705 to 1409. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,944 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–16–11.
Why only 68%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Lincoln's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,367 games vs 44.9% across all 99,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,834. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Lincoln are unbeaten in their last 17 league games at home. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.3% of 13,514 games vs 54.6% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it. Lincoln are newly promoted — game 2 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lincoln vs Portsmouth final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch R. Kavuma McQueen's goal against Lincoln (7').
- Watch Adrian Segecic's goal against Lincoln (16').
- Watch Reeco Hackett's goal against Portsmouth (32').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lincoln 1–3 Portsmouth. Explore more on the Lincoln and Portsmouth team pages or the Championship page.