Lincoln vs Southampton — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsSouthampton FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 43′Lincoln, yellow card:Foul
- 44′Southampton, goal:0–1assist
- Half-time0 – 1
- 54′Lincoln, yellow card:C. CohenDissent
- 56′Lincoln, yellow card:Foul
- 62′Southampton, substitution:off
- 63′Southampton, substitution:off
- 64′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 64′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 64′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 75′Lincoln, yellow card:Foul
- 76′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 76′Lincoln, substitution:off
- 78′Southampton, substitution:off
- 79′Southampton, substitution:off
- 84′Southampton, substitution:off
- 87′Lincoln, goal:1–1assist
- Full-time1 – 1
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Lincoln
Southampton
Match report
Late Ladefoged strike earns Lincoln a point against Southampton
Lincoln and Southampton shared the points in a Championship round five meeting at LNER stadium, drawing 1-1 after Southampton had led for much of the contest. The result left Tom Shaw's Lincoln 17th in the table on five points from five games, while Tonda Eckert's Southampton sit fourth with eight points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Southampton broke the deadlock deep into first-half stoppage time when Welington converted a James Ward-Prowse assist in the 44th minute to make it 0-1, a scoreline that held through the interval. Lincoln pushed for an equaliser after the break and eventually got it in the 87th minute, Mikkel Ladefoged finishing off a Reeco Hackett assist to level the score at 1-1, a result that stood until the final whistle.
Despite finishing with less of the ball, Lincoln outshot their visitors 19 to 16 and were credited with more corners, suggesting a home side willing to commit numbers forward even while conceding territory. Southampton controlled possession at 61 per cent and were the more disciplined side, picking up no cautions compared to Lincoln's three yellow cards, though referee Andrew Kitchen did not issue a single red card in a match that stayed largely within bounds despite 24 combined fouls.
Ladefoged's 87th-minute equaliser, struck from Hackett's assist, capped a rating of 8.2 that topped all performers on the day. Welington's earlier goal and Ward-Prowse's assist also stood out for Southampton, but neither matched Ladefoged's overall impact.
Southampton's 61 per cent share of possession underlined their control for large spells despite eventually being pegged back.
Lincoln and Southampton drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Lincoln met Southampton in the Championship (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 5 September 2026, 11:30 UTC at Sincil Bank. Referee: Andrew Kitchen.
Team pages: Lincoln · Southampton · Championship
Key moments
- 44' Goal: Welington (assist: James Ward-Prowse) — 0–1 · Watch Welington's goal video (44')
- 87' Goal: Mikkel Ladefoged (assist: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Lincoln (3-4-2-1)
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Lincoln 41%, the draw 28%, Southampton 31%. It finished Lincoln 1–1 Southampton.
Level sides, home ground holds off Southampton's control of the ball — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Southampton's hot finishing due to cool gives Lincoln the lean. The draw at 28% is up from the usual 26.5% between sides this level, as small adjustments add up.
Why Lincoln in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1689 to 1681. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,560 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Southampton scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 29.0% of 1,473 games, vs 29.1% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 41%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Southampton hold 14 more possession points (56 to 42 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.2% across 5,567 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Lincoln's column. Across 10,911 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,073. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Lincoln are unbeaten in their last 17 league games at home (15 wins, 2 draws), a run going back to October 2025. Rolling home runs look imposing but sides on a 6+ run won 56.3% of 13,570 games vs 54.6% class-expected — and in our walked test the rating already carried it, as it did for the season-long record. Lincoln are newly promoted — game 5 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Lincoln vs Southampton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Lincoln 1–1 Southampton. Explore more on the Lincoln and Southampton team pages or the Championship page.